Why POE1 will never matter again

So POE1 was never my thing. The hurdles in respeccing combined with the passive tree was an automatic disqualifier. But I never had any animosity towards it or those for whom it was a good fit. Until now.

There is an observable positive correlation between the number of badges someone has for POE1 and the likelihood they fall into a certain class of poster:

- Constantly complains about how terrible POE 2 is, and says how it was a disaster and mistake for GGG.
- Asserts they have never played the game, never will, and will never spend money with GGG again due to broken promises.
- Presents normal activity and patterns as evidence of their delusions that POE 2 is the aforementioned disaster and mistake in an intellectually dishonest fashion.
- Posts about nothing else, you can look at their posts and it's not like they're posting about POE 1 and also this stuff. They literally *just* spend their days talking smack about a game they're not playing.

It's annoying that they flood the forums with posts like those, and as such they've moved me from indifference regarding POE 1 to firm loathing simply through association. I will look forward to and celebrate its inevitable demise. I will campaign actively for GGG to shutter it ASAP so it can devote all of its resources towards POE 2.

Consider this the opening salvo in such a campaign. Let's take an actual objective look at the numbers:

https://steamdb.info/app/238960/charts/#1y
https://steamdb.info/app/2694490/charts/#max

So let's compare how they did, ratio wise, as of their latest peak, as well as tracking the percentage dropoff over time. Next to each number is the percentage it is of the other number.

Last Peak
POE 2 (Dec 8): 578k (252%)
POE 1 (July 22): 229k (39.6%)

1 week after
POE 2 (Dec 15th): 517k (287%)
POE 1 (July 29th): 180k (34.8%)

2 weeks after
POE 2 (Dec 22nd): 428k (295%)
POE 1 (Aug 5th): 145k (33.8%)

3 weeks after
POE 2 (Dec 29th): 380k (333%)
POE 1 (Aug 12th): 114k (30%)

4 weeks after
POE 2 (Jan 5th): 336k (350%)
POE 1 (Aug 19th): 96k (28.5%)

5 weeks after
POE 2 (Jan 12th): 292k (394%)
POE 1 (Aug 26th): 74k (25.3%)

6 weeks after
POE 2 (Jan 19th): 290k (453%)
POE 1 (Sep 2nd): 64k (22%)

7 weeks after
POE 2 (Jan 26th): 228k (495%)
POE 1 (Sep 9th): 46k (20.1%)

8 weeks after
POE 2 (Feb 2nd): 181k (489%)
POE 1 (Sep 15th): 37k (20.4%)

Now, the reality is not only does POE 2 represent substantially higher max playerbase and thus revenue potential, but it clearly also represents superior staying power and thus potential revenue over time. This is especially true when you consider something vital: POE 1 had its last release as a F2P game.
Typically 20% of the playerbase at most in a F2P game engages in microtransactions, so that 229k likely represents 45k players who paid. Meanwhile, *everyone* who played POE 2 ponied up at least $30. Let that sink in.

POE 1 - 229k players Played.
POE 2 - 578k players PAID.

If we assume normal ratios, that means not only does POE 2 represent massively more revenue, retention, and long term potential, but the amount of potential players when POE 2 is a finished product in a F2P model is absolutely *staggering*. Thus it's worth GGG devoting all of their resources to, as they clearly agree. Right now that's just temporary and they've promised they'll give POE 1 a final hurrah. But that should be exactly what it is. Put forth one last patch as a thank you to the long time fans and supporters. Then let it die.

why even play on steam?

Edit: I am not trying to troll, but is it possible a lot more play poe1 standalone client than via steam? The steam numbers are likely to show the same trend of numbers +/- percentages, while not reflecting the total population accurately. Only ggg knows the full numbers across all platforms.

I hope both games continue and are successful. I don't wish for the downfall of either one. I think the vast majority of people play and never go on the forums, so its not likely a good representation of the playerbase either.

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kelzod#3040 wrote:

why even play on steam?

bragging rights with proof of in game time haha

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GiantOctopodes#2562 wrote:

I'm annoying when I flood the forums with posts like this.

fixed

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Glorfndel01#6465 wrote:

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GiantOctopodes#2562 wrote:

I'm annoying when I flood the forums with posts like this.

fixed

For what it's worth I agree :-)

But two things can be true at the same time.

When they stop making posts about how the sky is falling because POE 2 player count is dropping and OMG this is proof how much of a mistake it was to create the game and how clearly superior POE 1 is and now GGG will spend the next 10 years shaping POE 2 into POE 1 etc etc etc... I'll gladly stop talking about POE 2 vs POE 1 as well. As stated I previously had no strong feelings on the topic. Would love to return to that state.

Edit:

"

kelzod#3040 wrote:

why even play on steam?

Edit: I am not trying to troll, but is it possible a lot more play poe1 standalone client than via steam? The steam numbers are likely to show the same trend of numbers +/- percentages, while not reflecting the total population accurately. Only ggg knows the full numbers across all platforms.

I hope both games continue and are successful. I don't wish for the downfall of either one. I think the vast majority of people play and never go on the forums, so its not likely a good representation of the playerbase either.

It is possible, yes. Whether or not it's likely, I do not know. As you correctly indicated, only GGG knows with certainty. Truly I have no animosity towards POE 1 itself, I just figure that its demise is the surest way to get that certain segment of posters to move on with their lives.

Otherwise when 0.2.0 releases and is just a balance patch and economy reset, and as a result the peak does not hit the inital early access release numbers (all things I expect), it'll be several more months of daily obsessive recountings of the 'failures' of POE 2 and so on and so forth and how the (normal and expected) decline in players over time is due to 'this' and 'that' and if only GGG would make POE 2 into POE 1, they could save an otherwise doomed game and company, etc etc etc. And given it's already tiresome, that sounds insufferable to me.

"

GiantOctopodes#2562 wrote:

"

Glorfndel01#6465 wrote:

"

GiantOctopodes#2562 wrote:

I'm annoying when I flood the forums with posts like this.

fixed

For what it's worth I agree :-)

But two things can be true at the same time.

When they stop making posts about how the sky is falling because POE 2 player count is dropping and OMG this is proof how much of a mistake it was to create the game and how clearly superior POE 1 is and now GGG will spend the next 10 years shaping POE 2 into POE 1 etc etc etc... I'll gladly stop talking about POE 2 vs POE 1 as well. As stated I previously had no strong feelings on the topic. Would love to return to that state.

Well, you don't have to have those feelings because you can let them go.

first off , i ve heard chinese players are playing on steam. so you re comparing apples to oranges. if it happens to be true you could already delete your post.

second.

twitch path of exile 2 now 4.9k spectators 2 month in 150k followers
twitch path of exile 1 now 2.9k spectators 7 month in or sth 3million followers

third.
retention might be higher, will see.
but it s a new shiny game with beautiful graphics.

dont get me wrong, i hope poe 2 succeed. so poe 1 and poe 2 have different team and different directions, more chances to have a good game.
but your post is severely lacking

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SerialF#4835 wrote:

first off , i ve heard chinese players are playing on steam. so you re comparing apples to oranges. if it happens to be true you could already delete your post.

second.

twitch path of exile 2 now 4.9k spectators 2 month in 150k followers
twitch path of exile 1 now 2.9k spectators 7 month in or sth 3million followers

third.
retention might be higher, will see.
but it s a new shiny game with beautiful graphics.

dont get me wrong, i hope poe 2 succeed. so poe 1 and poe 2 have different team and different directions, more chances to have a good game.
but your post is severely lacking

1. That applies for POE 1 as well as 2. It's apples to apples.

2. Twitch subscribers and so forth do not reset with leagues.
Twitch Path of Exile 2 now 5k spectators 150k followers 2 months in (3.3% of followers spectating, 75k followers per month)
Twitch Path of Exile 1 now 3k spectators 3 million followers 136 months in (0.1% of followers spectating, 22k followers per month)

Context always matters :-)

3. We will indeed see.

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GiantOctopodes#2562 wrote:

"

SerialF#4835 wrote:

first off , i ve heard chinese players are playing on steam. so you re comparing apples to oranges. if it happens to be true you could already delete your post.

1. That applies for POE 1 as well as 2. It's apples to apples.

Incorrect. PoE 1 China has its own separate client and realm, it is not connected to the rest of the world. If any are playing on the main realm via Steam, it's not many of them.

PoE 2 however is a different kettle of fish - it also has the Chinese players on the main realm.

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xMustard#3403 wrote:

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kelzod#3040 wrote:

why even play on steam?

bragging rights with proof of in game time haha

No. Steam offers convenience for my game library. I can easily access reviews, mods, expansions, community discussion, and get a refund for a buggy game. I have around 50-60 games and only about 15 installed, if I want to uninstall one and reinstall another it's quick and easy.

I don't understand the elitist anti-steam sentiment. Maybe I'm missing something but I've had zero issues with it