Corona virus

So bassicaly, if your old and have pre-existing conditions your pretty much in the worst possible position.

Doesn't mean everybody else is safe, but your probability increases drastically.

I don't fully trust those data sets though, but i assume they will provide a ball-park estimate.

Peace,

-Boem-

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Boem wrote:

The second part is also flawed in some sense, because we aren't preparing health care systems for when the lockdown is removed

we are, we have nowhere near enough ventilators etc to deal with this thing and were urgently trying to build them, we dont have enough protection equipment for front line healthcare staff etc, again theyre retooling manufacturing to mass produce them but we are desperately short atm. when they take the lockdown off after 3 months theyre hoping that the capacity to deal with severe cases needing ventilators and full on sci fi hazmat gear will be far greater than it is right now. our government is in major talks with all manner of manufacturing industries to see who can retool their plants to make the things we need to multiply our capacity to deal with this by many factors asap.

it still wont be enough to just let rip, theyre gonna remove the lockdown and then try and time it right to slam it back on before the infection rate outpaces our capacity to handle it. but they do hope that when that lockdown comes off we will have multiplied our capacity for cases that need vents etc.

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Boem wrote:

The first paragraph is questionable, for example italy was simply unaware of this disease for roughly two weeks before it was picked up.

So to claim that they didn't let the virus run rampant is not accurate, even though it was unknowingly.

ya it ran rampant at first, but none of these countries are just running that as their long term strategy. italy isnt in that situation having not implemented 'evil social distancing' etc. theyre in full lockdown, simply not going into full lockdown soon enough due to a lack of preparation and understanding was enough to completely demolish their healthcare system.

i dont think we acted fast enough here in the uk for sure. one of the lead medical people was on tv earlier and she said were currently at about 12% capacity in terms of beds and weve gone into a sort of soft lockdown now, but i wouldnt be surprised if the amount of infected people out there who just havent started producing symptoms yet absolutely savages us before the suppression measures take effect. weve got what? kind of a 2 week delayed effect of this thing? if we look how rapidly italys death toll started to rise over a period of 2 weeks its not looking good.

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You would quite literally need in some country's to have nine times the current capacity to carry the load of the scenario your saying, a removal of the lockdown and slowing down the pace of infection rates.

the lockdown has to come off, the economy cant withstand an 18 month lockdown so it has to come off after a few months at which point it will spike again and if we dont then go back into lockdown it will get out of control. from what theyre saying its a case of how long can you suspend a lockdown before this thing annihilates your healthcare system? no one here is currently crediting the idea that we will ever be able to cope with it being allowed to spread unchecked now. its all going to depend on how much we can expand our capacity in terms of beds and vents by the points we take the lockdowns off when it comes to how long we can survive out of lockdown before we are forced back in. thats what were being told the current model is.

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Snorkle_uk wrote:

...

Im from BE, just look at our death toll and compare it with yours, then consider we have been in lockdown for roughly a week and a half currently.

going from your baseline of 275 deaths currently, that means there are around 32000+- infected people in the UK, if you breach 65000 by most calculations it can no longer be contained and you go into an italy situation.

And as far as i gather you guys have just started implementing some baseline mild rules.

Peace,

-Boem-

Sadly still no real shutdown in Germany. At least most people around here respect the rules, but it's still not enough (supermarkets are full of people, zero distancing). Also Merkel went into quarantine because her doctor has corona.

This was an interesting watch.

https://youtu.be/MNhiHf84P9c

Ok, for the record, I consider myself a Corona Virus "truther".

Just a little bit of backstory. I actually got the virus, and recovered from it with extremely mild symptoms. I didn't realize this until yesterday when I gave some blood to a clinic (I was paid, I'm not donating shit). They said I had antibodies for the coronavirus in my system. They asked me if I had been sick, and I was like uh, not really? I had a mild case of a runny nose, and maybe my throat was a little sore for one day, but that's it. This is common cold symptoms!

My immune system, in a nutshell:



Something else to note here, and nobody seems to care about this, but 20000 people died from the Flu, in just the USA.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/flu-deaths-20000-americans-this-season-including-136-children-cdc/

Why aren't people panicking, and buying up all the toilet paper and hand sanitizer every time flu season rolls around? Why is the economy not busted once a year, every flu season? Why are they not shutting down bars and restaurants and telling everyone to stay home every flu season, on the off chance they can bring it home to their elderly grandma?

People are going to look back at this years from now, and see it as one of the biggest overreactions in history. I'm laughing at everyone who's paranoid over this shit.