New SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Thread

"

if the model shows 20k deaths with the entire country on lockdown and our medical capacity greatly multiplied how many deaths do you think we would have been expecting if we didnt lock down the entire country and let our vastly insufficient medical capacity get overwhelmed to the point where it fell apart?

I think we might see this in America. Brazil and Mexico clearly don't care. Trump will also likely remove the restrictions too early. As of now, the US has the most cases in the world.

"

Snorkle_uk wrote:

"

Raycheetah wrote:

Good news, everyone! That expert who set expectations off mass die-offs due to Covid-19 has revised his estimations:

https://trendingpolitics.com/breaking-british-expert-who-predicted-millions-of-coronavirus-deaths-makes-stunning-reversal/?utm_source=economics

Aren't experts awesome? =^[.]^=

did u guys actually read the article?

Yes, of course I read the article.

My point was that, due to this "expert's" overblown and alarmist predictions, many people believed that millions would be dying in the streets from this. The socio-economic consequences of the ensuing panic he caused will be far worse than the actual death toll, and this downward revision comes too late to prevent them.

Still hard to call where the true outcome of this outbreak will end up, but certainly nothing like the doomsaying we got right out of the gate. And whether or not shutting down the world as a result of the initial panic has saved us all, or simply added to the misery of what may always have been little more than a passing flu with a good publicist, it was based as much on wild speculation as on any concrete scientific understanding of the disease. From the article (you did read it,yes?):

"

5/ One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* - the UK only began ita lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work.

For the record, I have never believed that there would be "millions" of deaths from Covid-19 (not withstanding the fact that we cannot be sure what is happening inside China). It is all too easy to say that the experts and politicians (and yes, I am including the POTUS in this list*) have rescued us all from the very jaws of death, when in fact we may never have been in those jaws to begin with. That's all I have to say about this, except that the cure probably will turn out to be worse than the disease, at least on a macro level. ='[.]'=

*Any discussion about the political ramifications of this statement sadly cannot be posted on this forum; Support is watching. ='[.]'=

If you claim to be informed why are you still calling it a fucking flu?

USA USA USA USA

Most cases now, Trump 2020.
I remember when it was just "15 cases and soon would be almost zero".
Nek minute, 85 000+ cases.


Taiwan on the other hand, they were on the ball.
24 million people, similar population to my country (Australia), 267 cases only, whilst Australia is over 3000 cases now.

Taiwan numba ONE!

"

USA USA USA USA

Most cases now, Trump 2020.
I remember when it was just "15 cases and soon would be almost zero".
Nek minute, 85 000+ cases.


Taiwan on the other hand, they were on the ball.
24 million people, similar population to my country (Australia), 267 cases only, whilst Australia is over 3000 cases now.

Taiwan numba ONE!

And all but 40 of our cases here in Taiwan are people bringing it home from abroad. Almost all of our early cases were linked to business travelers from China, or people who work in China but returned to Taiwan for the new year. Many of them since are tour groups that returned from the Middle East and Europe, and a sizable chunk of the rest are university students returning from overseas study.

Out of the 40 local cases, nearly all of them are known contacts of imported cases. I think we've had 3 or 4 cases where it couldn't be determined with certainty how they contracted the virus.

We also have only 2 deaths so far, though that's certainly subject to change considering nearly all of our ongoing cases have been imported within just the past 3 weeks or so. Almost all of our initial cases prior to then have recovered and been released but continue to be monitored to varying degrees.

There's always concern that there could be hidden carriers unknowingly infecting people, but so far that beast hasn't reared it's ugly misshapen head. With travel into the country currently being restricted to citizens and permanent residents only, and all of them being immediately quarantined, that scenario is less and less likely with each passing day.

A lot of people here are starting to become more worried about economic blowback than the virus, considering how closely Taiwan's economy is linked with mainland China's in various industries. The government has been on top of its coronavirus game from the very start. But their track record on dealing with economic issues is far more dubious.

For those crying doom about the economy thanks to this shutdown, here's an alternative take - https://youtu.be/jQ_Z-wZK5ps

As that video suggests, maybe this was inevitable. Perhaps it's time to pay for running a system that has next to no capacity to absorb any kind of shock. The sad thing is that because of this virus getting all the attention as the sole cause of our woes, it's likely that lesson will never be learned. We can't keep running economies based on encouraging and incentivizing irresponsiblity.

lol our imbecile of a Prime Minister tests positive a couple of days after the TV appeal to the nation for everyone to step up their social distancing game

Apologies if this was posted previously in one of the various threads on this topic - just saw it and thought it was a nice distraction from all the stressful stuff.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojrtwXqqc6g

Haven't been here in a while but this is the exact type of thread I expected to see when I got here. Sure this thread's mutated once or twice, but that's how Poe forums work.

I spend most of my days in the front lines, I wouldn't have it any other way. I'm safe about it right now of course, and feel comfortable being out there.

These forums though? How do people who've turtled up there whole lives even be scared and further self-isolate than what they've done. The social disconnect was their entire life anyway.

It's quite embarassing to see quite-obvious shut-in's comment on social engagement issues... just saying =)

Changed the thread title cos, well, this isn't the only coronavirus - that's a whole family of viruses, of which this is just one variant - so might as well help facilitate a slightly more informed discussion.