Lost Ark experience was a total disaster...

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Xyel wrote:

It's 650k yesterday, which is more than 2x that of PoE's highest-ever peak, which PoE holds for an hour, and gets close to it for a few more hours in a year, while yesterday was a regular Saturday in LA.

And it has actually killed WoW's 9.2 patch.

Well, as I said - 1 months, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year. It's only the first month and the playercount has already halved. What will happen in the next months then? PoE is what? 10 years old? Let's see if it has PoE's league launch numbers in a year.

And speaking of WoW - if that's the case I think the only one who killed WoW is WoW itself.

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Draegnarrr wrote:

1340 + was intended to be a deadzone though AFAIK they just threw a bone to the people who grinded it by giving them some content, which I honestly think has already backfired.

"Grinded". More like swiped. Amazon realized big whales are already "maxed out" so they decided to release new content sooner so they can swipe again.

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esostaks wrote:

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Xyel wrote:

It's 650k yesterday, which is more than 2x that of PoE's highest-ever peak, which PoE holds for an hour, and gets close to it for a few more hours in a year, while yesterday was a regular Saturday in LA.

And it has actually killed WoW's 9.2 patch.

Well, as I said - 1 months, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year. It's only the first month and the playercount has already halved. What will happen in the next months then? PoE is what? 10 years old? Let's see if it has PoE's league launch numbers in a year.

And speaking of WoW - if that's the case I think the only one who killed WoW is WoW itself.

Oh, absolutely, but it's also important to keep the idea of a perspective - we're still comparing LA regular day vs PoE all time high - comparing yesterday's, regular day's peaks, LA had over 10 times the peak of PoE, so even if LA were to lose 80 % of its yesterday's players, the player base would still be double the size of PoE.

Also, LA losing 50 % of its peak numbers after over a month isn't exactly something bad, given PoE reached <50% of launch number on day 11 of the league.

And WoW would have still been fine if it wasn't for the alternatives, like LA - this is far from the worst expansion/patch WoW has ever had, but back then, the alternatives didn't exist. They do now.

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Xyel wrote:

Oh, absolutely, but it's also important to keep the idea of a perspective - we're still comparing LA regular day vs PoE all time high - comparing yesterday's, regular day's peaks, LA had over 10 times the peak of PoE, so even if LA were to lose 80 % of its yesterday's players, the player base would still be double the size of PoE.

Also, LA losing 50 % of its peak numbers after over a month isn't exactly something bad, given PoE reached <50% of launch number on day 11 of the league.

Surely, but I feel like it's fair comparison, because PoE 'shines' at League launches. It gets massive numbers at the launch and then numbers start plummeting. After all it is a 10 years old game so for a lot of people the game gets 'old' as soon as they are done with the new content. It's the game's model and a normal cycle that the devs expect.

Lost Ark on the other hand is a 'new shiny toy' and it surely will have high numbers at the beginning due to hype, but these numbers are already dropping pretty drastically. And it has no leagues/seasons to bring players back every few months after they are done with the base game. That's why I will be really surprised if it will have even 100k daily players in a year or so.

Yeah anyone toting numbers needs to remember new world posted enormous numbers at launch but is practically dead already :p

Staying powers hard to measure until a few months in and how players respond to content cycles

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Xyel wrote:

Oh, absolutely, but it's also important to keep the idea of a perspective - we're still comparing LA regular day vs PoE all time high - comparing yesterday's, regular day's peaks, LA had over 10 times the peak of PoE, so even if LA were to lose 80 % of its yesterday's players, the player base would still be double the size of PoE.

Sure, perspective is the thing, at the end of the day, more people played PoE in 2021 than in 2019. The game didn't have its big launch and then a steady decline over the next few years, like most MMOs have, it kept growing instead, as more and more people discovered it.

Lack of advertising and its complexity is probably what gave it the long windup. I imagine a lot of people try it, give up and then come back at some point with "Ok, now I'm gonna sit down and crack this nut open".

So, I don't think we even saw its peak yet, PoE2 will probably be it, if it gets the advertisement. But they might not do it on purpose, enough people are waiting for it as is, and, if anything, Chris is good at playing the long game. Considering PoE is their only game, it's probably for the best.

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esostaks wrote:

Lost Ark on the other hand is a 'new shiny toy' and it surely will have high numbers at the beginning due to hype, but these numbers are already dropping pretty drastically. And it has no leagues/seasons to bring players back every few months after they are done with the base game. That's why I will be really surprised if it will have even 100k daily players in a year or so.

lost ark has a more aggressive content release cycle than poe so...

poe is a dead game 2 out of 3 months, and as for the 1 other month: youre not even guaranteed to have success. this "expansion" of poe lost half of its players in 3 days and this games peak is already tiny as it is.

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Xyel wrote:

Also, LA losing 50 % of its peak numbers after over a month isn't exactly something bad, given PoE reached <50% of launch number on day 11 of the league.

No, its not something bad. However losing 25% of playerbase in 1 day, after bot banwave (and change to gold farming) is "something bad".

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Aynix wrote:

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Xyel wrote:

Also, LA losing 50 % of its peak numbers after over a month isn't exactly something bad, given PoE reached <50% of launch number on day 11 of the league.

No, its not something bad. However losing 25% of playerbase in 1 day, after bot banwave (and change to gold farming) is "something bad".

Bots aren't exactly the playerbase though - yeah, there sure is a bot problem, and it's not going anywhere because of how impossible botting in general is to deal with, but every game with trading has bots, so it's not like it would be a problem unique to the game, much more so to the overall genre.

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esostaks wrote:

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Xyel wrote:

Oh, absolutely, but it's also important to keep the idea of a perspective - we're still comparing LA regular day vs PoE all time high - comparing yesterday's, regular day's peaks, LA had over 10 times the peak of PoE, so even if LA were to lose 80 % of its yesterday's players, the player base would still be double the size of PoE.

Also, LA losing 50 % of its peak numbers after over a month isn't exactly something bad, given PoE reached <50% of launch number on day 11 of the league.

Surely, but I feel like it's fair comparison, because PoE 'shines' at League launches. It gets massive numbers at the launch and then numbers start plummeting. After all it is a 10 years old game so for a lot of people the game gets 'old' as soon as they are done with the new content. It's the game's model and a normal cycle that the devs expect.

Lost Ark on the other hand is a 'new shiny toy' and it surely will have high numbers at the beginning due to hype, but these numbers are already dropping pretty drastically. And it has no leagues/seasons to bring players back every few months after they are done with the base game. That's why I will be really surprised if it will have even 100k daily players in a year or so.

Yeah, except that the cycle was a lot different in 3.14- -- that has been beaten to death in the other topics, but PoE is bleeding players in each league at an unprecedented rate since 3.15, and especially at the big yearly patch, that isn't a great sign.

And this is where we would differ in interpretation - LA isn't losing players drastically, but actually extremely slowly given the launch number and its f2p status. It has only about 50 % drop in a month, but from a number that most other games in the genre don't even dare to dream of.

I changed my mind, go play Lost Ark and gtfo of Poe.