ALL HAIL PRESIDENT TRUMP

"
Xavderion wrote:
"
Turtledove wrote:
The difference is that it didn't come from Obama in the last administration. Trump is the one directing the choir of false and misleading statements in this administration. Trump's tally of false and misleading statements as of 2 months ago was over 5,000.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/09/13/president-trump-has-made-more-than-false-or-misleading-claims/?utm_term=.221779fbc629
If you check those "fact checkers" you realize that it's bullshit. For example, they say he lied 157 times by saying there was no collusion with Russia, while there is no proof for collusion with Russia. Really makes you think. Or lemme just copy an example from the site:
"
CLAIM: “The African-American unemployment rate has hit the lowest level ever recorded in the history of our country.”

FACT CHECK:
The black and Hispanic unemployment rates have been calculated only since 1972, so it's an exaggeration to say the current numbers are the lowest in history. The U.S. jobless rate for Asians has been around for less than 20 years. Although the black unemployment rate was at an all-time-low 5.9 percent in May, it had risen to 6 percent in September. That was still significantly higher than the overall unemployment rate of 3.7 percent.
Just... what? Just look at that spin lmao. That's 91 lies according to these "fact checkers". Pure propaganda.
Technically, WaPo didn't claim that as 91 lies; they counted it as 91 "lies or misleading statements." It's not really a misleading statement either, unless someone is so naive as to believe that black enemployment was recorded prior to the black civil rights movements in the 1960s, when the "Dixiecrat states" wouldn't have been cooperative.
When Stephen Colbert was killed by HYDRA's Project Insight in 2014, the comedy world lost a hero. Since his life model decoy isn't up to the task, please do not mistake my performance as political discussion. I'm just doing what Steve would have wanted.
Last edited by ScrotieMcB on Nov 12, 2018, 10:32:11 PM
"
Turtledove wrote:


Reporting is that Trump tends not to listen to experts and to flip flop frequently on direction and decisions.


This, I don't doubt.

"
Turtledove wrote:
In speeches he frequently brags that he likes to follow his "instincts" and "gut feel". I don't care if he's the smartest person in the world. These are worrisome characteristics in a President, at least to me.


If the leader's instincts/gut feelings are often erroneous, than it is definitely bad. If they are accurate, it can be a very good thing. Most of the leaders at the upper levels have far too much information to process themselves, and too short of a time frame to make decisions on it. They aren't usually gathering the information themselves, so they have to decide how much they trust the information gatherers, how much they trust the people analyzing the data for significance, and how much to trust the "experts" on it. It is well known that the aides to a leader often shape policy far more than most people are aware of.

That said, Trump's decisions to trust or mistrust data and recommendations isn't unusual at all. Nixon, Carter, Obama, Roosevelt and plenty of others have done the same thing. The only difference is how much the press is talking about it now.


"
Turtledove wrote:


To bring this back to its original context, I was responding to this.

"
RPGlitch wrote:

The problem is that people who aren't scientists are the ones offering solutions. Yeah, let me get my doctor to fix my plumbing. Hold on, he doesn't know how to use a wrench? Oh well.


Trump probably without any expert consulting was the one that made the silly claim as to what the core problem was that caused the wildfires. That was Forest Management by California. This was silly for two reasons. First 60% of the forests in California are managed by the federal government.


This part of it is true, Federal forest management has been backwards for quite some time.

"
Turtledove wrote:
Second, experts say that Forest Management is not the cause.


Those 'experts' saying so are not only wrong, but dishonest. Don't take my word for it, do a little searching on your own - and make sure to exclude the term "Trump".

There isn't anything magical or mysterious about it. You try to control sources of ignition (human causes can be limited, lightning cannot) and you try to control the fuel load. Dead trees and heavy undergrowth cause fires to become much larger and hotter. The added heat causes healthy trees that would otherwise survive to ignite and contribute to the fuel load.

The Native Americans knew this. They also knew that clearing out sections of trees with intentional fires and cutting allowed deciduous trees and a cycle of regrowth that gave them better game to hunt.

If you would go back through the historical records, you would find that the vast swaths of coniferous forests were not present to the extent they are now. They are essentially weeds when compared in terms of ecological diversity and yield.

Forest "management" as currently practiced in California (by both the state and feds) is more like hoarding than management.



PoE Origins - Piety's story http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2081910
"

Those 'experts' saying so are not only wrong, but dishonest. Don't take my word for it, do a little searching on your own - and make sure to exclude the term "Trump".

There isn't anything magical or mysterious about it. You try to control sources of ignition (human causes can be limited, lightning cannot) and you try to control the fuel load. Dead trees and heavy undergrowth cause fires to become much larger and hotter. The added heat causes healthy trees that would otherwise survive to ignite and contribute to the fuel load.

The Native Americans knew this. They also knew that clearing out sections of trees with intentional fires and cutting allowed deciduous trees and a cycle of regrowth that gave them better game to hunt.

If you would go back through the historical records, you would find that the vast swaths of coniferous forests were not present to the extent they are now. They are essentially weeds when compared in terms of ecological diversity and yield.

Forest "management" as currently practiced in California (by both the state and feds) is more like hoarding than management.



I bet Trump will also blame the fact that hurricanes continue to get stronger stronger on "Hurricane Management" lol. I'm waiting for him to say something stupid like that........ No Trump, Hurricanes getting stronger is due 100% to climate change, I can guarantee you that. As someone who's studied and tracked hurricanes for a couple of decades now, I can ensure that's the cause. Warmer Oceanic temperatures is the only thing that can cause that, PERIOD!....I'd like to see Trump try and wiggle his way out of that one.

Last edited by Mentoya on Nov 12, 2018, 9:12:42 PM
"
Xavderion wrote:

If you check those "fact checkers" you realize that it's bullshit. For example, they say he lied 157 times by saying there was no collusion with Russia, while there is no proof for collusion with Russia.


But, "muh Russian IP!" That an IP address can be spoofed, run through a VPN or otherwise altered never crossed the "experts" minds is B.S. The small number and nature of the efforts do not in any way resemble a governmental effort either.

In some cases, hacks they attribute to Russia were data that was transferred so quickly it had to be on a local network in the building.

One of the 'Russian' election 'attacks' on election computers in Georgia was proven to have come from US Homeland security.

No one believes the Russian angle. The entire thing was a sham in order to be able to wiretap Trump and his people. CNN and MSM ran with it like the good little lap dogs that they are.

A sheep would be embarrassed by how gullible leftists are.
PoE Origins - Piety's story http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2081910
"
Mentoya wrote:
I bet Trump will also blame the fact that hurricanes continue to get stronger stronger on "Hurricane Management" lol. I'm waiting for him to say something stupid like that........ No Trump, Hurricanes getting stronger is due 100% to climate change, I can guarantee you that. As someone who's studied and tracked hurricanes for a couple of decades now, I can ensure that's the cause. Warmer Oceanic temperatures is the only thing that can cause that, PERIOD!....I'd like to see Trump try and wiggle his way out of that one.



"To gain more insight on this problem, we have attempted to analyze much longer (> 100 yr) records of Atlantic hurricane activity. If greenhouse warming causes a substantial increase in Atlantic hurricane activity, then the century scale increase in tropical Atlantic SSTs (sea surface temperatures)since the late 1800s should have produced a long-term rise in measures of Atlantic hurricanes activity, similar to that seen for global temperature, for example."

We find that, after adjusting for such an estimated number of missing storms, there remains just a small nominally positive upward trend in tropical storm occurrence from 1878-2006. Statistical tests indicate that this trend is not significantly distinguishable from zero In addition,note that the rising trend in Atlantic tropical storm counts is almost entirely due to increases in short-duration (<2 day) storms alone.

If we instead consider Atlantic basin hurricanes, rather than all Atlantic tropical storms, the result is similar: the reported numbers of hurricanes were sufficiently high during the 1860s-1880s that again there is no significant positive trend in numbers beginning from that era."

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2009JCLI3034.1



The scientific consensus (Consensus at one time told everyone that black holes were impossible)is that warmer temperatures should create more hurricanes and/or greater strength. The models show a hurricane increase, but this is likely GIGO error. Even without incorrect initial assumption for the models, models are very fallible, which is why they don't constitute proof of anything, but rather guide future research effort focus.



PoE Origins - Piety's story http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2081910
"
DalaiLama wrote:
"
Turtledove wrote:


Reporting is that Trump tends not to listen to experts and to flip flop frequently on direction and decisions.


This, I don't doubt.

"
Turtledove wrote:
In speeches he frequently brags that he likes to follow his "instincts" and "gut feel". I don't care if he's the smartest person in the world. These are worrisome characteristics in a President, at least to me.


If the leader's instincts/gut feelings are often erroneous, than it is definitely bad. If they are accurate, it can be a very good thing. Most of the leaders at the upper levels have far too much information to process themselves, and too short of a time frame to make decisions on it. They aren't usually gathering the information themselves, so they have to decide how much they trust the information gatherers, how much they trust the people analyzing the data for significance, and how much to trust the "experts" on it. It is well known that the aides to a leader often shape policy far more than most people are aware of.

That said, Trump's decisions to trust or mistrust data and recommendations isn't unusual at all. Nixon, Carter, Obama, Roosevelt and plenty of others have done the same thing. The only difference is how much the press is talking about it now.


"
Turtledove wrote:


To bring this back to its original context, I was responding to this.

"
RPGlitch wrote:

The problem is that people who aren't scientists are the ones offering solutions. Yeah, let me get my doctor to fix my plumbing. Hold on, he doesn't know how to use a wrench? Oh well.


Trump probably without any expert consulting was the one that made the silly claim as to what the core problem was that caused the wildfires. That was Forest Management by California. This was silly for two reasons. First 60% of the forests in California are managed by the federal government.


This part of it is true, Federal forest management has been backwards for quite some time.

"
Turtledove wrote:
Second, experts say that Forest Management is not the cause.


Those 'experts' saying so are not only wrong, but dishonest. Don't take my word for it, do a little searching on your own - and make sure to exclude the term "Trump".

There isn't anything magical or mysterious about it. You try to control sources of ignition (human causes can be limited, lightning cannot) and you try to control the fuel load. Dead trees and heavy undergrowth cause fires to become much larger and hotter. The added heat causes healthy trees that would otherwise survive to ignite and contribute to the fuel load.

The Native Americans knew this. They also knew that clearing out sections of trees with intentional fires and cutting allowed deciduous trees and a cycle of regrowth that gave them better game to hunt.

If you would go back through the historical records, you would find that the vast swaths of coniferous forests were not present to the extent they are now. They are essentially weeds when compared in terms of ecological diversity and yield.

Forest "management" as currently practiced in California (by both the state and feds) is more like hoarding than management.





It is a stupid Trump lie to claim that it is California's fault. 60% of the forest are under federal control and a third of the forests are privately held, only about 6% of the California forests are even under control of the California government.

Regarding the rest of your post, experts say that the problem is that
1. we're in the seventh year of a drought in California,
2. there are strong winds and
3. many private homes have been built in these areas.
Forest management is an almost irrelevant issue below those three much more important issues.

Just another example of Trump's magic gut being wrong again.
Over 430 threads discussing labyrinth problems with over 1040 posters in support (thread # 1702621) Thank you all! GGG will implement a different method for ascension in PoE2. Retired!
Last edited by Turtledove on Nov 12, 2018, 10:25:41 PM
"
DalaiLama wrote:
"
Mentoya wrote:
I bet Trump will also blame the fact that hurricanes continue to get stronger stronger on "Hurricane Management" lol. I'm waiting for him to say something stupid like that........ No Trump, Hurricanes getting stronger is due 100% to climate change, I can guarantee you that. As someone who's studied and tracked hurricanes for a couple of decades now, I can ensure that's the cause. Warmer Oceanic temperatures is the only thing that can cause that, PERIOD!....I'd like to see Trump try and wiggle his way out of that one.



"To gain more insight on this problem, we have attempted to analyze much longer (> 100 yr) records of Atlantic hurricane activity. If greenhouse warming causes a substantial increase in Atlantic hurricane activity, then the century scale increase in tropical Atlantic SSTs (sea surface temperatures)since the late 1800s should have produced a long-term rise in measures of Atlantic hurricanes activity, similar to that seen for global temperature, for example."

We find that, after adjusting for such an estimated number of missing storms, there remains just a small nominally positive upward trend in tropical storm occurrence from 1878-2006. Statistical tests indicate that this trend is not significantly distinguishable from zero In addition,note that the rising trend in Atlantic tropical storm counts is almost entirely due to increases in short-duration (<2 day) storms alone.

If we instead consider Atlantic basin hurricanes, rather than all Atlantic tropical storms, the result is similar: the reported numbers of hurricanes were sufficiently high during the 1860s-1880s that again there is no significant positive trend in numbers beginning from that era."

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2009JCLI3034.1



The scientific consensus (Consensus at one time told everyone that black holes were impossible)is that warmer temperatures should create more hurricanes and/or greater strength. The models show a hurricane increase, but this is likely GIGO error. Even without incorrect initial assumption for the models, models are very fallible, which is why they don't constitute proof of anything, but rather guide future research effort focus.




I prefer the graphs on this page

https://www.theguardian.com/weather/ng-interactive/2018/sep/11/atlantic-hurricanes-are-storms-getting-worse

as they are much easier to read. They are definitely getting stronger. They were even talking about designating a Cat 6 on a weather channel documentary due to how many storms are hitting upper Cat 5 Winds. Just this year alone, we had a Cat 5 slamming into the USA in a part of the Gulf Coast where that almost NEVER happens. It even caught the forecasters off guard, and there was a 180 mph storm(strongest on record in that area) ripping up an island in the Pacific, and these are just the 2 that stands out. In the pacific alone, they just about went through the entire alphabet of named storms, which again is extremely rare.


Like the article also states
"Hurricanes draw their energy from deep below the ocean’s surface – up to depths of 2,000m. The temperature at these depths is measured by Ocean Heat Content, a metric that has soared since 1970, driven largely by four of the world’s major oceans. Last year was the hottest on record."

It's impossible for hurricanes not to get stronger when the ocean temperature is is rising. Hurricanes thrive on warm temperatures...
Last edited by Mentoya on Nov 12, 2018, 11:22:17 PM
Now 6420 false or misleading statements by Trump since becoming president according to Washington Post.

You can read the "no conclusion" misleading statement explanation or search for any other fun thing you'd like here. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-claims-database/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.2da774d70ced
Over 430 threads discussing labyrinth problems with over 1040 posters in support (thread # 1702621) Thank you all! GGG will implement a different method for ascension in PoE2. Retired!
"
Mentoya wrote:


Mine were taken from NOAA.gov, but if you think the Guardian is a more accurate source of weather information than the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration than feel free to use them.

"
Mentoya wrote:
as they are much easier to read.


They also conveniently leave off the large number of Hurricanes shown in the beginning of the NOAA graphs, which skews the results.



"
Mentoya wrote:


Like the article also states
"Hurricanes draw their energy from deep below the ocean’s surface – up to depths of 2,000m. The temperature at these depths is measured by Ocean Heat Content, a metric that has soared since 1970, driven largely by four of the world’s major oceans. Last year was the hottest on record."

It's impossible for hurricanes not to get stronger when the ocean temperature is is rising. Hurricanes thrive on warm temperatures...



It's a good thing there is no deep ocean west of South America, or between Africa and South America, or all that deep hot ocean would be causing hurricanes!



Ask yourself why there are no Hurricanes is those huge stretches of very warm ocean water.

It is temperature/pressure differential which drives the storms.
PoE Origins - Piety's story http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2081910
Last edited by DalaiLama on Nov 13, 2018, 1:27:55 AM
"


Mine were taken from NOAA.gov, but if you think the Guardian is a more accurate source of weather information than the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration than feel free to use them.




It's not like "The Guardian" drew up them graphs themselves, if you look at the bottom of the graphics, they come from very reputable sources such as Earth System Research Lab as well as The National Hurricane Center. ...


"

They also conveniently leave off the large number of Hurricanes shown in the beginning of the NOAA graphs, which skews the results.


Well at least many of those associated with NOAA believe in Climate Change and that it is a growing concern, as they've been on the Weather Channel Documentaries stating such.


"

It's a good thing there is no deep ocean west of South America, or between Africa and South America, or all that deep hot ocean would be causing hurricanes!


As someone who minored in Meteorology with an emphasis on studying severe weather, warm water is just one ingredient, but it's a very important one. Wind Shear, dry air, interaction with ULLs and other factors come into play for hurricanes to develop, BUT the warm water is making it much easier for them to strengthen much more rapidly.


"
Ask yourself why there are no Hurricanes is those huge stretches of very warm ocean water.


Again, different parts of the ocean have differing amounts of wind shear and dry air, some more than others. It's the same reason the Caribbean doesn't get as many storms even though the water is very warm. Dry air and wind shear is often very dominant there. If warming water WAS the ONLY factor, an ungodly amount of catastrophic hurricanes would develop every year.

Report Forum Post

Report Account:

Report Type

Additional Info