Corona virus

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Johny_Snow wrote:

I don't know if purchasing all toilet paper in sight is some sort of modern instinct or something when there is a crisis but I'd really like it stop. I don't want to have to travel farther away because some (literal)asshole decided to buy out the whole shelf.

=^[.]^=

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Johny_Snow wrote:

I don't know if purchasing all toilet paper in sight is some sort of modern instinct or something when there is a crisis but I'd really like it stop. I don't want to have to travel farther away because some (literal)asshole decided to buy out the whole shelf.

You can still use the shower if you got the toilet next to it.

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It was never going to be fully contained and you know it. That's not the world we live in. The moment it was identified in Wuhan we all knew it was going to be global. We didn't expect it to be bad because we fooled ourselves and said, well, that's China. Poor health standards, communist society, very packed living. Of course it ripped through them. Us? We'll get a handful of cases probably.

How fucking naive we were.

I think this is an apt assessment. I'll admit it describes my initial misconceptions on the epidemic rather well.

About three weeks ago, I started to realize I was, well, fucking naive. Not necessarily the part about China mismanaging the initial containment — I still believe that — but the notion that it mattered whether China did or not. There are some fights you'll lose even if you make no mistakes. Not that I'm sure that's what happened, but that we don't know whether China could have contained it, nor whether anyone else can.

Because I was naive initially, I'm hesitant to double-down on any layman's opinion I might have. The only opinion I am confident of is that this will not be the end of our species, or even of our way of life. The worst case scenario is that we permanently add an additional virus to our list of yearly Pandemics, which currently include influenza and the common cold. The worst case scenario is that a greater percentage, going from 0.01% to just under 0.1%, of our least healthy people die off each year. (Initially, this percentage may be higher, but long-term you can't kill an unhealthy person twice.) Even the worst case scenario would have COVID-19 killing less people per year than drug overdoses or drunk driving or obesity. People will get some yearly vaccine that won't be effective by the next year, just like they do for influenza now, and life will go on.

And yet we have people hoarding toilet paper as if it's the End Times.

All joking aside, I get why Charan is pissed. This pandemic has a high probability of killing him. And I'm not against The Powers That Be mounting an attempt to contain the virus to save Charan's ass, providing that quest doesn't become a pilot program for totalitarianism. It's a good charity to help with and I don't much mind helping.

But let's be clear here: all of this effort is just for that bottom 1% on the health hierarchy. There isn't yet a case on record of a child dying to COVID19, based on my admittedly not comprehensive search. No doubt there eventually will be, but that's because some children have immunodeficiency disorders. All of this is charity for a small portion of the population, not a potential extinction event. Going to extreme measures to prevent the spread of COVID19 makes LESS sense than shutting down the highways to prevent deaths due to vehicular accidents.

If you're not scared yet, I think there's something wrong with you. I don't know what, and that's a broad concept: 'wrong'. If you can't manage fear, start with awareness. Then maybe work towards concern. As it gets closer, and impinges more on your personal life, you'll catch up, one way or another.

As for the toilet paper/pasta/rice/hand sanitiser run, I found a rather funny meme about it:



Please take this little jab in the spirit of arch observation rather than a call to radically change any country's political inclinations. This is obviously not the time for that. We'll be lucky if that time ever comes at this rate, heh.

Related to this, a NYT feature about a dude who trekked across the US snatching up supplies to flog them at a higher-than-retail price highlights nicely the perfect capitalist 'early response':

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/technology/coronavirus-purell-wipes-amazon-sellers.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

TL;DR -- little amazon merchant read the room, trekked around his state scooping up supplies from mom and pop shops, and proceeded to profiteer like a boss, gouging like there's no tomorrow. Amazon shut that down, and now he's trying to look like a hero, a 'public servant'. naturally he's also looking into ways of donating but his ultimate goal is still 'to sell locally, make a small profit'. Well...that's capitalism on the small scale, isn't it? Can't blame a guy for taking care of number one. OTOH he knew he was making 'crazy money' from what is essentially a national emergency. I think that crosses a line, but eh. YMMV.

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The TP run brings me back to taking absurd things seriously. Is it a new concept? Not at all. But the risk of not doing so is now very clear, isn't it? People mocked the toilet paper hoarders because it was absurd. But if they didn't see the knock-on effect of this meaning little to no toilet paper for the 'sane' ones a few days later, they just weren't paying attention. Which is why here, about a week after the first TP run, sheepish naysayers were going out first thing in the morning trying to get a pack or two.

There was a midway place between these two, and I'd like to think I occupied it. We bought double our usual amount when the chance of a run become clear, which is a few months' worth. I still mocked the hoarders but I wasn't so committed to that to think they were 100% wrong. I still have friends who are stuck at the 'mocking' phase, which is quickly appearing to be their coping mechanism. To each their own.

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A bit further abroad, Guatamala is locking the US out. Looks to me like the 'shithole countries' are taking measure to keep their shit isolated. Good.

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Do you personally know anyone with Covid-19 yet? The GF is fairly sure a friend of hers in DC has it. Mild symptoms, thankfully, but the description fits perfectly. Another friend just has strep throat but it was obviously a tense moment for her.

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Astoundingly, Abe Shinzo is sticking to his guns over the Olympics and refuses to declare a state of emergency. Well, he might get his Neo-Tokyo Olympics but no one is going to be there. One image comes to mind...



Crazy. Just freakin' crazy.

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Foreverhappychan wrote:

If you're not scared yet, I think there's something wrong with you.

Why? If I get it I'm not dying, nor my kids. As you know, this thing doesn't kill healthy people.

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ScrotieMcB wrote:

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Foreverhappychan wrote:

If you're not scared yet, I think there's something wrong with you.

Why? If I get it I'm not dying, nor my kids. As you know, this thing doesn't kill healthy people.

Because capitalism allows people to be idiots.

Because a lack of fear enables the sort of attitude that makes one vulnerable to all sorts of side effects that can come from all sorts of angles. Paranoia is the state of 'jumping at shadows', which is obviously unhealthy too. But whatever its opposite is (complacency? Short-sightedness?), it fixates merely on the fact that shadows are 'obstructions of light, and they can't hurt me'...technically correct, but the reason people jump at shadows isn't because of the shadows. It's because of what can be lurking in them.

Honestly, at this point. The least informed, most ignorant, and most emotional folks seem to be the ones completely losing their head over it.

All leading disease experts on the matter consider it serious, but all of them agree that hoarding supplies is one of the least effective things you should do about it.

Yet, we get the occasional self-righteous posts about how to make the problem worst, rather than better.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Etlyvt9n_QE

This one's for Boem. Dr Campbell absolutely eviscerates China's delayed response, the three week cover-up, and notes just how much of this could have been prevented without it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?itid=pm_pop -- REALLY excellent set of simulations as to what happens when you exercise social distancting/quarantine to slow transmission and allow 'recovery' to take over. Note that it doesn't take death into account, which, technically speaking, helps. Fewer dots, less transmission...