Life is an RNG fiesta

"

TorsteinTheFallen wrote:

...Luck is the part of everything, and we can't control it. Therefore we focus on what we can.
But not to look at it from the negative side, realization of it brings a solace, that it's not all our fault nor our merit.

Define "Luck."

If "Luck" is everything that has worked against you in achieving a desired goal... Well, that's not "Luck."

If "Luck" is what you define as "Random Chance" then you can't very well include "Social Status" and "Country" and "Intellectual Ability" and "Physical Attractiveness" or "Mental Health" in there, can you? Why? Because you can actually define those things. They're their own category of variables.

"Luck" is largely "the unknown and unmeasured." When you know what it is and you know its effects, it is no longer "Luck." When you can then measure this known thing relative to a goal or some conclusion, it is no longer "unmeasured" is it?

The whole concept of "Luck" being some magical thing is largely B.S.

And, when is it measured and why?

When someone points at a specific individual and examines the circumstances of their success and also examines their qualities, when do they announce their success as "being lucky?"

A person grows up in an impoverished state. They don't have easy access to much education. They don't have any social connections to help them. Then become a world-renowned surgeon. Lucky?
A person grows up in an economically advantageous position. They have easy access to education. Their family associates with people in the Medical field. They become a world-renowned surgeon. Lucky?

An attractive blonde waitress has a chance meeting with a producer and she is then made into a world-renowned sex symbol. Lucky?

From what point of view is one making the determination of "Luck?" Before or after some "achievement?" If it's only afterwards, how in the world can one ascribe predictive value to it if one does not then... actually define and measure it?

It's not that randomness or chance or some other set of unpredictable circumstances can't or don't have an effect on certain outcomes or desired goals - They can.

It's that taking any specific occurrence of these things and then generalizing them to some other population or individual is just not going to yield always-valid results. It just won't.

In your example of the DOTA player, what about others in his cohort? What about those that became very successful physicians? I'm sure there may have been a few, right? Just because they were in that disadvantaged cohort, does it mean that Luck is the largest factor of their success or was even significant? No, you can't judge that from such a loose observation.



If a meteor falls on my head in the next ten minutes, one could say I was "unlucky."

But, if its path was known, am I then still unlucky or just stoopid for not moving out the way?

Are you lucky it didn't happen to you or just normal because the path was known? This whole concept of "ignorance of the factors involving random chance is equitable to "Luck"" is just... of little importance in the grand scheme of practical matters.

But, it sounds cool and philosophy an' stuffs and it appeals to a great many people. That's why he made a misleading and controversial vid about it...

Note: I do understand how a subject could arise that one could find fascinating and inspiring inasmuch as it sets one's brain to cranking out thoughts. That's fine! There's nothing wrong with "thinking" and being enthusiastic about it. But, as far as this video is concerned and the issues it raises, it is not worth the calories you're putting into thinking about it. It really isn't. You're devoting too much importance on what it falsely presents. It is misleading, intentionally so, and yields what is very largely a false conclusion or premise.

"

TorsteinTheFallen wrote:

...
If someone has two kids and one is born stupid and other smart, what would you call that?

I'd call that an "observation." It doesn't mean anything more than that in the context in which it was presented. It has no predictive value at all other than exactly what it states.

"

Maybe I'm not smart enough to understand, but pls water it down for me if it's not a too much trouble.

He does not define "Luck."

Instead, he defines "Luck" as "everything." He defines it depending upon the context of whatever he is talking about, then he demands that it itself is a "thing."

Anything that is defined as being "everything" is, in fact, nothing. It's a worthless definition and his conclusions based upon it are equally worthless.

His methods are also misleading and questionable because he derives some conclusions based upon insinuating Luck is "random chance." That is "statistical confidence" or "error." So, in effect, all his statements regarding "Luck" are simply him stating "errors" that weren't measured for.. as being significant in a desired outcome.

I will sum up his general premise:

"Sometimes stuff happens which isn't known nor can it be predicted, but is mostly not significant relative to the stuffs that was measured, so I say its significant."


(Edit: My post got borked for some reason and much was lost.)

He also claims to have discovered something... Well: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_assistance

No, what he mentions as significant is well-known. That's the difference between an expert talking about something and a novice - An expert knows or makes sure they know before they start talking.


Edit: My post got borked and truncated. Therefore, to sum:

This guy is full of hooey. Don't place any importance on anything he has to say if it is of similar quality as the linked video.

Huh, will have to agree to disagree.

You are very persistent on that definition of luck, so here's definition from Cambridge.
Luck
"the force that causes things, especially good things, to happen to you by chance and not as a result of your own efforts or abilities:"

"

If "Luck" is what you define as "Random Chance" then you can't very well include "Social Status" and "Country" and "Intellectual Ability" and "Physical Attractiveness" or "Mental Health" in there, can you? Why? Because you can actually define those things. They're their own category of variables.

I would very much say that all of those things are product of Luck. Social status can be achieved but some are born in it.
Do you feel responsible for good iq?

"

A person grows up in an impoverished state. They don't have easy access to much education. They don't have any social connections to help them. Then become a world-renowned surgeon. Lucky?
A person grows up in an economically advantageous position. They have easy access to education. Their family associates with people in the Medical field. They become a world-renowned surgeon. Lucky?

Yes and yes, you are missing a point.

"

From what point of view is one making the determination of "Luck?" Before or after some "achievement?" If it's only afterwards, how in the world can one ascribe predictive value to it if one does not then... actually define and measure it?

It's before also. Example, genetic material of parents.

"

In your example of the DOTA player, what about others in his cohort? What about those that became very successful physicians? I'm sure there may have been a few, right? Just because they were in that disadvantaged cohort, does it mean that Luck is the largest factor of their success or was even significant? No, you can't judge that from such a loose observation.

Nobody said that nor i advocate it. All i'm saying it matters.

"

If a meteor falls on my head in the next ten minutes, one could say I was "unlucky."

But, if its path was known, am I then still unlucky or just stoopid for not moving out the way?

Why are you stupid and not smart? Could you influence that?

"

TorsteinTheFallen wrote:

Huh, will have to agree to disagree.

That's fine. If we all agreed with each other, always, the world would be a pretty boring place. :)

"

You are very persistent on that definition of luck, so here's definition from Cambridge.

No. I am persistent that the presented fails to define "Luck." Yet, he keeps referring to it constantly as if it is "a thing." In each example, he cites it as significant. He has as many definitions of "Luck" as he has examples.

The "Wind Blowing" is not "random chance." It is random, somewhat, in how likely it is one could predict it occurring. BUT, in the context of one measurement with the goal to see how many achievements were done, it's no longer "Luck." It's "wind speed."

Is "wind speed" significant in you becoming a Doctor? No.

Is "chance?"

"Chance" is that .05 confidence level.

Anything that isn't "chance" is... "known." (Hopefully) And, if it is known, then its likely it can be effected/affected in other ways. It's randomness, thus, can be somewhat manipulated. The better one can do that, the less "chance" there is in an desired outcome.

"

I would very much say that all of those things are product of Luck. Social status can be achieved but some are born in it.

And, what effect does that Social Status have on your ability to become the World Hotdog Eating Champion?

The interpretation of its effects in that vid are always contextual, relevant to specific other things, and it may not apply to specific individuals. It's more likely for you to get a good education if you're from a family with high social status. "More likely" - That's measured from some predictive value derived from a population study regarding those who achieved the measured goal. BUT, that doesn't mean that you therefore have to rely on random chance to get a good education if you are not of high social status. It doesn't mean that at all. Not even a little bit... That's not something one can derive from that.

"

Do you feel responsible for good iq?

No. But, I would feel responsible for properly utilizing it. And, likely very disappointed in failing to achieve that proper utilization. :)

But, plenty of people with mundane I.Q.s have gone on to succeed in areas where others with higher I.Q.s have not. So, it may not be an entirely necessary indicator for predicting success with specific outcomes. In general, it's a reasonable predictor of having an advantage in succeeding in achieving certain goals. It's not going to turn me into an All-Star Quarterback, though...

"

Yes and yes, you are missing a point.

Which one? He doesn't present a lot of them, you know. :)

"

It's before also. Example, genetic material of parents.

Have you measured, previously, the impact of "genetic material of parents" on the success rate of achieving the measured goal and can confidently state that it is significant? Or, did you assume it was?

"

Nobody said that nor i advocate it. All i'm saying it matters.

But, see? You're saying "it matters" as if that is all that must be said. That's the same thing that the video guy was doing and it's a bad argument.

He created some imaginary astronaut candidates and gave them two variables - Skill and Luck. Then, magically, those with acceptable "Skill" and more "Luck" achieved Astronaut status.

Big deal.

I create a bunch of Astronaut Candidates and give them two variables, "Skill" and "Pancakes."

Those with acceptable Skill and high Pancake scores more often achieve Astronaut status! YAY PANCAKES!

(I really can't believe someone made up their own statistical test and then claim its meaningful, having manipulated it to have the desired outcome beforehand. That's just.. bad.)

The world is a much simpler place if you decide not to actually define anything.

"

Why are you stupid and not smart? Could you influence that?

Define "Stupid" and "Smart."

Seriously, we'd have to define those things before we could determine whether or not they were detectable, right?

Does "Stupid" mean I would have a Low IQ? Maybe. Or, it could mean that I am ignorant, which is entirely different. What about "not Smart?" Could I make mistakes that are not-smart? Sure, but would those be because I am not-smart or because I am prone to making mistakes because my thoughts are preoccupied by integral calculus?


"Ignorance" can be manipulated.

I.Q., it is believed, can not be significantly manipulated.

There's a generally required I.Q. relevant to basic human functioning beyond just being a holistic life-support system for one's organs. There are certainly some levels related to gaining and comprehending knowledge. There are then levels closely associated with competence in certain mundane intellectual skills. But, on the higher tail of the curve, things get... murky. "High I.Q." is not likely mandatory for a great many activities and achievements associated with "High I.Q." It's probably handy, though.


I will never be a male fashion model. I "clean up gud," but I'm not front-cover material by a long-shot. Does that mean I have "failed" anything? No. I didn't even try to be a male fashion model, so that can't possibly be a "failure." :)

"

TorsteinTheFallen wrote:

Hey Crackmonster,

...

lets go from the beginning, way before all of this and take a look a the grand scale of things.

I appreciate your sincere post a lot. And i do not mean to tell someone that if anything goes wrong in a life they only have themselves to blame, or that if anything goes wrong one should think of themselves as bad or worthless people. That said, in the vast majority of cases there are lessons to be learned from a choice or a non-choice.

I do first wish to point out that nothing in what i have said goes against what you stated in your larger post before, that bad luck can happen and essentially take you down and out. We need look no further than a myriad of diseases to confirm that.

What i posted was simply that life is not just RNG because it really isn't just that. Even when you had bad RNG faith and focus will always serve you.

Just like you said, it's both focus(work/effort) and RNG. I very much agree, bad luck can happen that is out of your control, but it never at any stage invalidate using what you have to work towards where you want to get. Both RNG and rewards of hard work are very very real.

I am an advocate of believing that things that are out of your control you should not waste your time worrying about it outside of practically preparing for what makes sense. Therefore, cutting that big worry out of the equation you are left with only the elements that you can manipulate, that you can influence to improve your own life. And yes if the worst happens, it happens, but then you are back to working with what you can influence.

And imagine i had to tell someone just to give up and not try to influence their life, following a belief that it isn't rewarding anyway because life is RNG? At all points whether up or down, you can always move faster towards where you want to go if you focus on it. That doesn't mean you have to become a certain type of person - for myself i don't generally do "big achievements" because i enjoy more having fun than having a big thing to show someone.

Look and i have to be a little careful now - but if i psychoanalyze your behaviour a little it appears that you didn't really need anyone to tell you that what happens is your fault - you brain was more trying to find out the truth that you are not a useless person just because extremely bad stuff happened to you. It looked for an explanation as to why did it happen, and a ego always wants to protect yourself from thinking that you are not good. Which is completely understandable and healthy, nobody needs to believe something which puts all blame on yourself with the conclusion that you deserve it. That would be a bullshit thing to believe in, even if sometimes it can be true(not saying you i take you at your word it was out of your control).

Maybe then you will see what i mean about surrendering to hopelessness, you were coming from a real downstate in your confidence then you need explanations of why what happened doesn't mean you are useless. It feeds you directly into explaining it by that bad things happen that you have no control over, and if those things were bad enough they can cause you to lose hope for a long time that you can get to a better place than you were before. So you really need to embryo yourself in the belief that life is ruled by RNG.

It' exactly like depression, when you are just down and out you need to stop blaming yourself, need to stop whipping yourself. Just take a time out and at some point gather the courage to look at what you have left and start working your way towards a place you would like to be. You, not anyone else, just where you want to take your life. And when you start walking that path(you don't have to reach it, just doing it for yourself and taking the steps restores faith in youself) then you start becoming happy again. And that, no matter how small steps they are(and btw the steps increase in length the longer you do it) is not RNG. That is you consciously acting.

And that is why i say that it's not an empowering belief that life is not at all in your control, but sometimes that is a needed belief to protect yourself from bad conclusion or just to explain that extremely bad luck can happen to anyone and it doesn't mean they deserve it. Which is what you said mentioning it bringing solace to believe in it. But your real strength returns when you start walking the steps of reaching for what you want. Not what you want to prove to others, but where it makes sense for you to go no matter how little a place that is to others.

I'll shut up now before i step all over your situation, but i hope i made some sense.

On the flip side, sometimes letting go and accepting a bit of uncertainty is a lot healthier and more productive than doubling down on the illusion you have 100% control and 100% responsibility for everything in your life.

There are all types of random in life, and all types of personalities and temperaments to meet them. The high achiever or type-A might fare very poorly in life when presented with a sudden and drastic setback that's out of their control. Likewise, overly risk-averse people, consensus-seekers, etc. are going to be pretty unhappy in business, tech, and gaming because these are inherently fluid, competitive, and reward early adopters and risk-takers.

We are all more or less innately wired to perceive justice and fairness, and life is hardest when RNG, and not our direct action, deals us or our friends a bad hand.

We're notoriously poor at accepting less than 100% self-determination, which is why nearly every religion is built around the idea of karma, punishment, retribution, or judgment. There has to be a reason, a plan, a rational explanation; the human mind doesn't really know what to do with coincidence.

You could err on the side of blaming fate, God, someone else, etc. for your misfortunes. Even to the point of accusing someone else of intentionally screwing you over, or consciously being out to get you. Or you could err on the side of self-loathing and bitterness because you wrongly take 100% responsibility for a totally random misfortune, and waste precious time trying to fix what you didn't break, or seeking forgiveness for no misdeed at all.

It's the same reason we believe that "free will" is an essential part of being a living thing, but have a very hard time fitting it neatly in a bigger picture that shows our lives determined by more or less random events or cycles of events.

At times we've decided we don't really have any free will, just that our choices are predetermined by an infinite number of tiny events in our brain cells or butterfly wings or innate cosmic balance sheets. At this point it's less trouble to simply accept that our state of mind and thus our decisions and perceptions depend a lot on outside things but are uniquely ours.

It's also uniquely within our grasp to hold ourselves to a high standard, but know when it's no longer in our hands, and help each other accept and surpass what we cannot avoid.

Yes, on the large i agree with that. You are saying much the same in different words. And i am glad you wrote it because now i can bring my true point to full circle.


There is a reason that i spoke out against the topic title. There's a huge danger lurking there. A danger i sensed was imminent here.

You see it is a protective mantra, but it is not the end goal. And i spoke because i wanted you to know that you must not get stuck in that mindstate for the rest of your life.

I have seen many, many people who have experienced ruthlessly unfair and unjust conditions in life - and have simply given up trying. They found comfort and escapism and never moved on from the belief that life is just out of your control. That's really a dangerous place to end up at - it breeds pessimism and inaction which reinforces the belief in a negative circle - you believe nothing really matters, the world loses it's colors and life loses it's meaning.

Look at some of the stories from skid row. It's very hard to escape from there once you end up there, and it eats your hope daily, but you must keep fighting or it will eat you alive. The only way is to find courage through the hard times.

Los Angeles Homeless Man Shares the Harsh Reality of Skid Row

So i really hope you consider that your happiness comes back when you start taking small steps towards something that YOU want. Because i sense a lot of stuck in expectations around you - and maybe, just maybe if that was the case life did you a favor because you were trying to force yourself into a life that was not your own. I have no idea what happened to you, but maybe you couldn't go through with it because it wasn't meant for you. Maybe you could view it as a second chance to live your own life.

Thing is, when we do something which we feel happy for ourselves to do - then we stop caring what others think we should be doing.

"

crunkatog wrote:

On the flip side, sometimes letting go and accepting a bit of uncertainty is a lot healthier and more productive than doubling down on the illusion you have 100% control and 100% responsibility for everything in your life....

"

Crackmonster wrote:

Yes, on the large i agree with that. You are saying much the same in different words. And i am glad you wrote it because now i can bring my true point to full circle....

Ty both for writing. I honestly enjoy the talk.

Crackmonster, i get why you are against the title. Playing on luck will get you nowhere in life and I agree wholeheartedly.
Even more so, I'm the person that counts on myself more than on anything else. The more serious things are the less i'm willing to play the luck card.
I want to get a motorcycle and I already watched shitload on videos about it. I'm that guy. xD Because I hate the feeling of the leap of faith and jumping into the unknown without knowing what i can.

You've read some things about me good. You've said "protective mantra" and it is in a way because I had to get some sense in things that had no sense at all.
After lots of reflecting and thinking, bad luck was the only "rational" explanation. Things that I couldn't influence or change made a cascade of events.

It's not something i live by. It's not something i'm counting on or I would tell anyone to count on.
But it's there.
I don't believe in faith, at least i think i don't, therefore i acknowledge that you have to give input to have output, other than laying on couch.

It's not easy even to walk those small steps if you are not sure in which direction to go. Sounds easier than done but i appreciate the positive vibes.
I would really wish for things to be all me, but they aren't.
Nevertheless i'm kickin' in some way, hopefully the right way.

"

I have seen many, many people who have experienced ruthlessly unfair and unjust conditions in life - and have simply given up trying. They found comfort and escapism and never moved on from the belief that life is just out of your control. That's really a dangerous place to end up at - it breeds pessimism and inaction which reinforces the belief in a negative circle - you believe nothing really matters, the world loses it's colors and life loses it's meaning.

I hear you, and I get your concern. Ty for laying it down like this because it's true.

First video I've posted ended with the paradox and he concluded with, to be successful (i'm paraphrasing) you have to believe that you are in complete control of your life, but you also have to be aware that if successes happens luck had part in it.
My intention was never to tell anyone to let go the steering wheel, but to point more in theatrical way that life has it's own ways to direct the show.



While going over this topic i remembered one phenomenal interview!
I would recommend everyone to see it, especially younger people at the start of their carriers (whatever they do).
It's the interview with Marco Pierre White.

For those who don't know who he is, he was the youngest 3 Michelin star chef in the world (now 59y/o) and also the person who was the mentor of now world famous Gordon Ramsey.
Marco Pierre White was tough as a coffin nail, worked his ass off and achieved everything he never dreamed off or even knew when he started. He has something to say relating this topic.

https://youtu.be/U-xCIstDBaI

We are all "doomed to choose." We are all "condemned to be Free."

That's a paraphrase of Sartre and some other big-headed thinkers. In the end, what it means is that you're the only one that has ultimate power over your own life. It's up to you to define it and it's up to you to do something you believe is meaningful with it. Or, if you don't require "meaning" at least it's up to you to do something if you're not currently satisfied with it.

Does it mean it's easy, though? Does it mean that we control everything that could impact it?

Well, even a slave is condemned to choose. They can choose to no longer be a slave, but if they make that choice and their master kills them... Well, that wasn't "chance" was it? Did everyone who died on the Titanic suffer that death through "chance?"

If you win the lottery, did you win due to the random nature of drawing the winning ticket? What if you bought all the tickets and then won? :)

There are times I think about my own upbringing. I'm definitely not posting for the chance to share that, but only because I force myself to compare it to those I know had worse experiences than I did. I force myself to do that because it brings clarity. So, some kid growing up as an orphan in a war zone and having to fight wild dogs for food while trying to avoid the press-gangs looking for child soldiers? Yeah, that kid has it worse than I did.

Was his life experience "chance?" Did it depend on "chance?" No and no.

What is tragic is the difficulty of overcoming adversity and those factors some claim are "RNG" but are actually just forcers acting on ones decisions and sometimes credited for outcomes, whether they apply or not.

Life is not predestined, but it's not as random as the philosophy some console themselves with.

I know someone who, as a basic principle, attempts to plan their "life." They attempt to strategically maneuver themselves into certain advantageous situations. They make clear, concise, seemingly accurate judgements of certain situations and play those as best they can in order to achieve a desired outcome.

They are very effective in certain things and with certain tasks.

Unfortunately, they're not very effective with many things they make such intense effort to "plan."

Why?

They're myopic, that's why. They can't see the forest for the trees. They don't plan for the unexpected and believe themselves to be adept at navigating the corridors that they must move through in order to be successful.

They are "successful" and have had a hand in achieving that. But, not for the reasons they believe. They're successful, as they would judge it, because they put themselves into situations where they are able to take advantage of opportunities that present themselves... even the ones they didn't plan for. Especially the ones they didn't plan for.

But, they'll go on "planning" stuff and attempting to "manipulate all the things" because they believe that's why they're successful.


If one is interested in the concept of "randomness" in.. life-stuffs, I encourage them to read Nicholas Taleb's "The Black Swan." For those deep in the inner halls of corporate boardrooms, it's required reading. But, though Taleb is unabashedly full of himself, he is also a pretty brilliant guy. :) It's good stuff. (The man does have an ego that's barely constrained by the comparable humble force of... gravity.)

Most things that people claim are random are not. This is outside of the original video that was posted as that's just a load of hooey. Instead, in the more squishy, mashable, malleable, lump of events called "life" things are just not that kind of random.

Worse, what some declare as random chance is just plain "I let it happen." That's fine. But, if it's bad and one just lets it happen, that's not fine. It sometimes comes down to whether one has the will to make the good things happen and avoid the bad things... or not. If one has the will to get up out the chair and put out the fire, the bad fire is not going to happen.

Apparently, being "overwhelmed" with stuffs is a current theme in today's netizen population. That's a hard "yup" from me. But, so what? It's not going to go away. The only way it goes away is if one suddenly decides it doesn't matter because one has no control over it.. .because it's "random."

That's ungoodthink. Besides that, it's just untrue too. :)