GGG, we should really talk... [WS Drop Log: Tier 8 Maps/100 Waystone update]

Been seeing a lot of threads and chatter so I thought I would run an experiment on the first T15 map I got to drop. Nothing crazy cracked but upgraded:

42% Increased number of Monster Packs
60% Increased Number of Magic Monsters
14% Increased Number of Rare Monsters
Area has patches of shocked gorund
76% more monster life
7% Increased Stack Size of Simulacrum
Area contains a Mirror of delirium
6% Increased Pack Size
9% increased quantity of Items
96% increased rarity of items
196% Increased Waystones found in Area

Character has 154% Rarity with the + 20% charm

Completed the entire map. 0 monsters remaining and compiled a list of all waystone drops.

Waystone A: Blue Tier 2
Waystone B: White Tier 7

And that was it. Two > negative 8 tiers

I know this is a small dataset of n=1 T15 maps. I would happily conduct further repetitions if you could provide me with more samples. The last step of the scientific method sometimes skipped is to reproduce your results, but I am sure you can appreciate the challenge there as I find myself a bit short of T15 waystones.

Sarcasm aside: this is very quickly progressing out of the realm of a grindy, "challenging", less-casual-alternative-to-Diablo or whatever the vison is action RPG and into the realm of disregard and lack of respect for the time your player-testers are investing. Going from a T15 to a T7 is objectively a waste of time. Unless it's a tower, a Moment of Zen, or a Hideout. Augury might make the list too strictly due to the levers

Apart from the general consensus recommendation easily gleaned from the forum posts to improve drops as a whole here's specific idea: Change the atlas nodes. Instead of an arbitrary chance of dropping a tier higher (20% of 0 is still zero) have those points raise the floor- Waystones will drop no more than X tiers lower

The irony is I chose to be here and paid to be a play tester, but this is somehow supposed to sustain the interest of a free to play player base? I don't know. Something's not right

Follow up study on a T13, 267% waystones in area:

1xT12 (rare), 2xT8 (normals), 2x T7 (normals), and a magic T6 to round it out.

Map had a Breach, delirium, and expedition all completed

Even on a coin flip, if you do it once or twice, you will have 0% and could assume it's rigged.

There's a reason why studies takes years before they become accepted.

Comeback after a 100 maps and compile that in excel, do it after 1000 maps, then we will see.

But dont do that, everyone already knows the maps are lacking. Just wait for them to fix it.

Oh I wouldn't, maybe for 100 because that would at least add extra value for running them since it won't be for waystones...

But 1000? Nah, that would take the collective "we" to do filling out a form something like the following and logging their map drops:

Character Level:
Character MF/Rarity%:
Map Tier:
Total Waystone Drop %:

Any added modifiers (breach, expeditions, altars, delirium, etc)

Log of Waystones (Tier and Rarity):

Yes unfortunately your sample size is much too small. It's not really data, it's an anecdote.

But you probably don't need hundreds, even 10 maps may give a statistically significant result and not take too long. It's not unreasonable to expect reasonable returns on that many maps. But there are also so many mods that it's hard to compare. It would be better to stick with simpler waystones and gather data from those.

any tier map should not drop 4 or more levels below

If we play T15 really only loot worthy maps are 13+ because you can reforge them into 14s and 15s

Dropping a T7 waystone on T15 doesnt make sense at all.

Also rarity and item quantity should be implicit like waystone drop chance on waystone if it got too many hard modifiers it increases rarity/quantity/waystone drop chance it shouldnt be a prefix on the waystone it self becuase the ones that dont get that isnt worth running even if its hardest possible

Prefixes only should have like increased pack/rare size etc. NOT rarity/quantity

Character Level: 85
Character MF/Rarity%: 154
Map Tier: T1n
Map: Steppe
Total Waystone Drop %: 0

Any added modifiers (breach, expeditions, altars, delirium, etc)
None

from atlas as listed in map:
6% Increased Pack Size
9% Quantity
23% Rarity

Log of Waystones (Tier and Rarity):

T1n
T1n

Character Level: 85
Character MF/Rarity%: 154
Map Tier: T1n
Map: Crypt
Total Waystone Drop %: 0

Any added modifiers (breach, expeditions, altars, delirium, etc)
None

from atlas as listed in map:
6% Increased Pack Size
11% Quantity
23% Rarity

Log of Waystones (Tier and Rarity):

T1n
T1n

Character Level: 85
Character MF/Rarity%: 154
Map Tier: T1n
Map: Vaal Factory
Total Waystone Drop %: 0

Any added modifiers (breach, expeditions, altars, delirium, etc)
None

from atlas as listed in map:
none

Log of Waystones (Tier and Rarity):
T1m

Note
essence spawned

Ongoing log:

Ran additional T1 maps and until ~20 waystones dropped. For the first 13 maps the atlas was reset and obtained the following distribution of Tiers:

Maps 13
WS# 19
WS/M 1.46
T1% 50.00%
T2% 21.05%
T3% 27.78%

While this might make sense given the tiers are truncated on one side (can't have a tier below 1) it was inefficient. First adjustment was to the atlas tree taking any nodes that relate to increasing chances of a drop but not influencing the tiers of said WS drops. Increase pack size, increase magic monsters, increase quantity, rarity is on the way to quantity etc. By my math these are the bonuses from the tree

21% INCREASED PACK SIZE
20% RARE+1 DUPED
35% INCREASED MAGIC/20% MPS
21% STRONGBOX
50% SB EXPLICIT
38% WS QUANTITY
9% RARITY
NO WS TIER HIGHER NODES

The 21% Increased Pack Size and 9% Rarity were confirmed by the map overlay (which will lead to an observation regarding the 38% WS Quantity)

Ran maps until another ~20 waystones dropped- why not a set number of maps? Because long term I am curious about the distribution of dropped waystone tiers relative to current map tiers (anecdotally terrible, but just how terrible?) and how much impact the "drops one tier higher" has- running 50 maps for 3 waystones would not be helpful vs collecting 100 waystones and estimating efficiency/drops per map

With the adjusted atlas added:
Adj.
Maps 8
WS 18
WS/M 2.25
T1% 83.33%
T2% 16.67%
T3% 0

Okay progress efficiency up slightly. Don't want to stay at T1 for 100 waystones, but does seem like adding more monsters/chances improves waystone yield and probably loot as a whole. Also still makes logical sense that you run T1s you get mostly T1s and I'd guess the T3s could just have been really lucky.

Totals of all T1s:

Maps: 21
WS: 37
WS/M 1.76
T1% 64.86%
T2% 18.92%
T3% 13.51%


Next steps take these settings to T7/8 normal because it's in the middle, collect 100 WS, enable the X% Tier Higher, collect 100 more repeat at T15 (hopefully this study can be self-supporting with exalt drops, will need to buy ~100 maps). Hypothesis: T7/T8 will be somewhat "fair"- an approximate normal distribution centered around 7/8. T15 will be heavily skewed down (arguably unfair)


Now the observation- the map overlay/modifier only accounts for the +38% waystone quantity from the atlas WHEN you use a map that already has a +X% modifier. This could use confirmation but if you run normal maps or even magic maps that don't give a bump the overlay does not show +38% Waystone quantity as a flat boost. Also with +magic monsters only listed when added to a pre-exisitng modifier. Maybe they are always active just hidden but Rarity and Pack Size always showed

Something to keep an eye on in future studies