How does Orb of Chance work in POE2?

I used one on a ring after a few other items did not work, it failed and ring and orb disappeared 🤷‍♂️

I've been wanting to roll for this item: https://poe2db.tw/us/Alphas_Howl
So according to this, the base item is an "armoured cap". Has anyone ever seen an armoured cap drop? Not a single one on the trade site either.

I have a normal utility belt trying orb of chance for ingenuity so it is a uniq for this belt and i have same problem like above item cannot increase rarity anyone know why ??

According to the wiki:
"Ingenuity has restrictions on where or how it can drop. It cannot be chanced."

So if the information presented is correct, does that mean that at this stage, a chance orb is a 50/50 of getting a generic unique, assuming it exists?
That is actually pretty powerful.

Not 50/50,

chance will be based on the rarity of unique item. For now you can all try and use orb of chance on white heavy belts to have a chance to get Headhunter unique belt.

However it is a very rare belt, so the chance is most likely way lower than 1/100, still good luck

Does it say anywhere specifically how it works? Or are we just slinging guess work?
Also, nothing tells us the rarity.

The more interesting option to me is to get build-defining uniques that would be cheap to trade for (theoretically), but can thus be accessed without trading.
Sadly, a lot of those are hidden behind bosses.

"

Braciak90#0919 wrote:

I have a normal utility belt trying orb of chance for ingenuity so it is a uniq for this belt and i have same problem like above item cannot increase rarity anyone know why ??

Ingenuity only drops from king of the mist so it can't be chanced.

"

UnDeaD_CyBorG#7056 wrote:

Does it say anywhere specifically how it works? Or are we just slinging guess work?
Also, nothing tells us the rarity.

The more interesting option to me is to get build-defining uniques that would be cheap to trade for (theoretically), but can thus be accessed without trading.
Sadly, a lot of those are hidden behind bosses.

I mean, people are guessing but it's hardly a shot in the dark.

Almost certainly, it's that you can chance items from their specific base item that don't have drop restrictions, and the chance to succeed is based somewhat on the tier of rarity that the unique in question has. The only true question mark is if the chance to succeed is the same as the regular chance for the item to drop as that unique, or if the chance orb has some sort of normalisation attached to it, and that will take a much larger sample size to work out. As far as I can see there isn't any datamined information about relative rarity of specific uniques at all, let alone what specific drop chances there are, let alone how chance orbs interact with these chances, so until those "I chanced 210304321 items so you dont have to" type karma threads start popping up on reddit (or more datamined info starts popping up on poedb) we wont know for sure.

I would assume the chance for a chance orb to create a unique is significantly higher than just the random drop chance, because you're using a limited currency on the item that, if my drops so far are anything to go by, is significantly rarer than Exalts.
I also do expect a normalization, though to what amount and what the end result is, I do not know. Nor anyone, as you so succintly put.