Numbers are absolutely plummeting

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Amotokai#2266 wrote:
I can 100% guarantee the community and the dev's that the reason so many are leaving is do to the absolute difficulty of the game. When game progress suddenly halts and the players spend days to weeks trying to continue progress in the game and can't. They give up and leave the game. Something I personally am planning on doing myself. It is not a joke when I say that Path of Exile is far more difficult than any souls game or any other game you think of. Especially for the casual player. They leave to play something they can relax and game on instead of going through constant emotional distress and stress in general.


You would be wrong.. of all my friends.. none stopped because of that. Every single one was because endgame is boring and because they ware waiting for more classes and weapons.
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Asghaad#3967 wrote:




the other is brand new game with unsolved meta ...



Why would anyone care to solve a meta if GGG already announced a total wipe and large changes are coming?
Last edited by Urza_Mechwalker#7393 on Feb 7, 2025, 5:11:20 AM
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Asghaad#3967 wrote:
-snip-


The amount of inaccuracies in here…

First, what apples do you want to compare to? The reason I compared to not just POE 1 but multiple GOTY titles is because losing players this fast is perfectly normal, across virtually all games. But especially within the ARPG genre. That peak for POE 1? It was actually the lifetime peak for POE 1. The same pattern and the same drop off happened with literally every major release for the game. Look for yourself. Sharp peak, 10% retention 2 months later.

Second, the game is not a pseudo mmo live service model. Among other things that would imply an expectation that major bosses require parties to beat them. It’s literally just a thing you’re making up.

Third, the reason it doesn’t have leagues is because the game is *not finished yet*. It’s not a released game! It will have leagues, eventually, they’ve already confirmed as such. But they’re literally still building the game, it’s in alpha, so you are correct that it does not have leagues yet. But the idea that a less than half finished game should have leagues or better retention than a mature 10+ year old product is absurd.

Fourth, it’s already a viable product. They have likely made more from POE 2 already than they made lifetime from POE 1. They don’t actually have monthly subscribers (again it’s not a mmo), they just need people to buy it, and ideally throw down for some cosmetics. The idea that peaks of 300k would be “disaster” when that would still be 1.5x the success of POE 1 is laughable. The players could drop to 1/10th of what they are and have peaks of 100k and it would still be a success.

And fifth I don’t call them doomers. I call them intellectually dishonest, and several other things I won’t post here in the interest of maintaining a civil discourse. But not doomers.
Last edited by GiantOctopodes#2562 on Feb 7, 2025, 8:02:26 AM
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Asghaad#3967 wrote:
"
Spoiler
"
Today there was new low of just 72k players on steam. Why am I not surprised?


I just love how disingenuous these posts always are. POE 2 had 578k at peak. Currently has 132k 2 months in despite being a less than half finished, never balanced early access product. That's 22% retention, 2 months in. Aghast, Egads, how terrible!

How about POE 1?
Last peak, 229k July 22nd. 2 months later, September 22nd? 30k. 13% retention.

What about the GOTY contender Helldivers 2, on its actual release?
458k Feb 19th, 166k April 19th, 36% retention. Not bad. By May 19th though they were at 78k, 17% retention. Took them a bit longer to get there.

Another GOTY contender, Black Myth Wukong?
2.4 million players Aug 22nd, 145k players by October 22nd. 6% retention.

I could go on, easily. It's almost like player loss over time is expected behavior and virtually any game over enough time which isn't specifically Counterstrike 2 will look like an EKG if you look at Steam charts; sharp peaks when expansions, major patches, or other events happen, then a decline as folks move on to other things. Rinse and repeat.

But, what about the legendary stable player base of POE 1? It was just built better! Everyone has decided to go back to the superior game! Or so I hear. Except, its low last night was under 5k players. So, clearly not "everyone". And of those 5k players, how many do you think were bots? Are even 1k players actually playing the game at the low tide mark?

What about Last Epoch? Low of under 1k active players last night. Diablo 4? Low of under 10k last night, peak of 20k. Torchlight Infinite? Lows under 2k, highs scraping 4. Lost Ark? Low of under 15k, peak of 27k.

I mean, it's so weird. Looking at the numbers you would think that more people are playing Path of Exile 2 than literally the entire rest of the ARPG genre put together, and it is one of the most popular games on Steam or something. Oh wait, it is. Currently one of the top 10 games being played right now. And that's despite being an admittedly less than half complete early access game with absolutely no balancing done yet and bugs rendering it nearly unplayable or actually unplayable for a lot of people. But yeah, dead game, and all that.

You keep spending your nights furiously "refreshing" in front of the Steam Charts pages, looking for new lows in player count. You'll find them. But the narratives you're attempting to spin as being implied by those drops in players are blatantly false and require a shocking level of intellectual dishonesty in order to peddle them.



comparing apples to oranges here ...

Spoiler
one is tiny bit of extra content on 10 year old game with slight tweak to mechanics

the other is brand new game with unsolved meta ...

no PoE2 bleeding players THIS fast is NOT a good sign for live service pseudo mmo title

if it had set release schedule that would bring "leagues" in lets say old 3 month intervals then yeah having current 25% player retention after 2 months would be quite goo, thing is its been 2 months since the start of the beta, there were ZERO content releases since, the patches they release so far are a BAD joke, there is zero information about when the next content is supposed to come out ...

on top of that they broke the promises of supporting PoE1 and even admited they knew for SIX MONTHS now that there isnt any work being done for the functional viable product they have just to put the few devs needed for leagues development to work on the bug ridden mess that is the ALPHA version of PoE2 ...

you call people watching charts doomers, while those people are just pointing at teh proof that the game is NOT a viable product yet and that the requirement for it to become viable is so impossible that the game will be going the way of the other similar failed projects like the New World / Lost Ark / "insert whatever mmo-lite of recent release you like" ...


Proof requires fair and accurate data, not skewed numbers. For example, in the original post, comparing peak numbers to off-peak numbers is meaningless. That's like me comparing my local midday temperature yesterday to my local night-time temperature today and saying "Look how much the temperature dropped in a single day. Crazy!"

So if you want to talk comparing apples to oranges, there you go.

That's not to mention that POE2 is following the exact same number trends as all seasonal ARPGs of its type. Comparing it to other game genres (or those with completely different models) is fruitless. Again, apples to oranges.
"

Fourth, it’s already a viable product. They have likely made more from POE 2 already than they made lifetime from POE 1. They don’t actually have monthly subscribers (again it’s not a mmo), they just need people to buy it, and ideally throw down for some cosmetics. The idea that peaks of 300k would be “disaster” when that would still be 1.5x the success of POE 1 is laughable.


This is all very true. But we have to remember, that the release of PoE2 annoyed much of the original fanbase. A lot of people here in the forums are the loudest among those upset fans. They'll take a drop in numbers in a seasonal ARPG that's been in EA for two months and present that as proof of failure they really want to happen. There's no use arguing with them or trying to use common sense or logic, because all they want is an echo chamber.
I dont know about everyone else but im done until we get a reset. the dupe put me so far behind inflation I couldn't catch up without giving up a normal life. I just come here form time to time to see if we have communication
In my opinion this should be normal: numbers dropping , I mean.

The whole concept of playing a game day in and out for years is insane.
I obviously understand that number of players dropping rapidly is normal in these type of games. The problem is that the game is so bad compared to poe 1 that many of them will never come back.

What is the point on working on new classes and adding acts when the endgame is terrible? They have made so many bad choices compared to poe 1 that it will take them another 10 years to revert them.

Literally no big streamers are streaming poe 2 atm. They know its shit. They will come back for the new "league" only to quit 2 weeks later. In the new league the decline of players will be much more rapid.

Some of the streamers dont even pretend to like poe 2 anymore. Straight up playing dead poe 1 leagues.

"
I obviously understand that number of players dropping rapidly is normal in these type of games. The problem is that the game is so bad compared to poe 1 that many of them will never come back.

What is the point on working on new classes and adding acts when the endgame is terrible? They have made so many bad choices compared to poe 1 that it will take them another 10 years to revert them.

Literally no big streamers are streaming poe 2 atm. They know its shit. They will come back for the new "league" only to quit 2 weeks later. In the new league the decline of players will be much more rapid.

Some of the streamers dont even pretend to like poe 2 anymore. Straight up playing dead poe 1 leagues.



Again, disingenuous. There are 3k viewers of POE right now. 9k viewers of POE 2. In other words there’s pretty much as many people watching POE 2 as there are playing POE 1. The inverse is decidedly not true.

And no “big streamers” are playing a half complete game where they already reached endgame and nothing has changed? Who would have guessed! But they certainly didn’t go to streaming POE 1, the numbers don’t lie.

As far as it being “so bad” compared to POE 1 you’re certainly entitled to that opinion. For every one person playing POE 1 right now who might share that opinion approximately 14 are playing POE 2 instead and thus we can infer they do not agree. This I highly doubt they’ll be reverting those choices.

Let’s see how many folks play 0.2.0 once it hits. Let’s see how many play the next big patch for POE 1. I’d wager good money the former will far outstrip the latter.
Last edited by GiantOctopodes#2562 on Feb 7, 2025, 5:47:32 PM
Well if you dont see the problem then I cant help you.

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