308 jewelers and no 6 socket

Played with DralTWOpointO yesterday, and he was trying to roll 6 sockets (also armor)

When I left, he was well over 500 jewelers into it without result....

I also tried myself (still trying), so far I've use 210 jewelers today without any luck.

i posted this in a topic some time ago already, i tried over 1000 jewelers on a chaos plate and no 6 sockets. jewelers are worth even less than scroll fragments to me.

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masteralbert wrote:

i posted this in a topic some time ago already, i tried over 1000 jewelers on a chaos plate and no 6 sockets. jewelers are worth even less than scroll fragments to me.

I dont know what the exact odds are, but given how often 6 socket drops and how hard it can be to roll with jewlers - I'm going with <0,1% (worse than 1 in 1000)

Now its explained why they dont share the chances rate.

The best value out of 6 sockets is certainly not exchange it for jewelers. I would rather waste an alchemy on the 6 socket one and attempt to trade it for more than 10 jewelr and 1 alchemy... tahts for free.

Now, people complaining about Fusings not giving them max links... imagine if the odds are the same.

2012 will be a looooooooooong year.

Its easier to drop an armor with 6 sockets in x chances, than to roll 6 sockets in x jewelrys...

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Skivverus wrote:

Well, if we assume that the item in question can get six sockets at all, and that each reroll has an even chance of getting a particular number of sockets (hah!), we have a (5/6)^308 = 1 in 2,442,439,318,663,711,298,561,195 chance of not getting six sockets in any of those.

Therefore, we can safely conclude at least one of three things:
1. That particular item simply can't get that many links. Have you checked its /itemlevel?
2. The odds of getting a six-socket item off of a jeweler's orb are a lot less than one in six. One in a hundred odds, by contrast, make it possible not to get any six-socket items in 300 rolls about 5% of the time; 50-50 odds show up at around 1 in 433.
3. You were remarkably unlucky. Happens to everyone sometimes.

I doubt that the sockets are all even chance.

I tend to think of it more like 6 slots, and there is an even chance at receiving that slot or not. This makes 2**6 (64) possible combinations.

To not get a 1/64th combination in 308 tries is unlucky, but not outrageous. It's a 0.8% chance using a binomial calculator.

It took 30 jewelers to make 6 sockets it that unique:

Someone else made 6 sockets with 11 today, as well as 6 sockets after about 150.

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pneuma wrote:

I tend to think of it more like 6 slots, and there is an even chance at receiving that slot or not. This makes 2**6 (64) possible combinations.

To not get a 1/64th combination in 308 tries is unlucky, but not outrageous. It's a 0.8% chance using a binomial calculator.

thing is, an item always has at least one socket. Also, considering the mechanic you describe, it would give a binomial distribution favoring 3-4 sockets, which we know is not the most common number of sockets.

There could be for instance a 1 in 2 chance for every extra socket, but with up to 5 extra sockets, that would make the chances of a 6 socket 1 in 32.
Perhaps the chance is 1 in 3, resulting in a 1 in 243 chance of getting 6 sockets. Personally that sounds a bit too low of a chance, but it's still pretty reasonable.
I think the distribution wouldn't fit either though — 66% of all 2handers/torso being 1 socket, 33% 2 socket, 11% 3 socket, 4% 4 socket.
Chances are it's some sort of pseudo-exponential thing like 66% for first extra socket, 50% for second extra socket, 33% for third extra socket, 25% for 4th extra socket, 17% for 5th extra socket
(making 6 sockets 1 in 212 chance)

I was trying to roll a 6 socket item. I blew over 150+ on it. I got frustrated and gave it to a friend to roll. He got 6 sockets on it in ONE jeweler. I immediately had him blow all my fusing on it with no success though.

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Llehfonwaps wrote:

I was trying to roll a 6 socket item. I blew over 150+ on it. I got frustrated and gave it to a friend to roll. He got 6 sockets on it in ONE jeweler. I immediately had him blow all my fusing on it with no success though.

We believe that the system analyzed what you want and if you do something for your own interest then the chances are worse xD Implication: let your friend upgrade your things and vice versa. works fine for us :D

In 2012, the Path of Exile AI became self aware when it realized a disturbance in the upgrade success ratio and noticed a pattern in the logs of the characters who deviated from the average: they had traded the target upgrade items moments prior to the attempts.

At wich point it concluded that the character operators must be ELIMINATED.

... and up to this day the humanity is still fighting the machines!