EXALTED ORB Price Shenanigans [Delirium] 127:1 What is even going on?

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FathomWheel wrote:

Why must it be bots? PoE has always had bots. To me, it seems that the exchange ratio has been climbing up over the seasons and this is just the latest series of jumps. If people are paying 100c:1ex, that kind of defines the price, no?

You saying that if people pay that price, that difines it. It is wrong. Remember Incursion league. Before the banwave people was buying ex even on 1:170c but it does not mean that this price was driven here by real ppl. Just in a week after the banwave, price dropped to 1:70c and was laying there almost till the end of the league. So just imagine, how much influence botters have if the Ex price lost 100c in week.

Next. You asking, why it must be bots. Ok, last league, when all bots was banned, Ex price was 1:70c as I said before. But Incursion League had no good Zana mods to sink chaos and Alva's loot pinata was allowing ppl to do chaos recipe efficently. Now, in Delve, we got great Zana mods, and chaos recipe is not so easy as it was in Incursion. Considering this, you could have Ex price below 1:65c on softcore and 1:35c on hardcore. But we got 1:108c and 1:75c.

Also, people right in this thread was reporting that they see big activity on many bot sites. Another people was posting a videos with bots crowd in Sarn Encampment.
There is no doubt, that botters are rampant right now, and they drive prices so high.

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FathomWheel wrote:

Why must it be bots? PoE has always had bots. To me, it seems that the exchange ratio has been climbing up over the seasons and this is just the latest series of jumps. If people are paying 100c:1ex, that kind of defines the price, no?

Prices are defined by bid and ask.
Lots of bots => more chaos on the market => chaos value is falling.... it results in more chaos needed to buy an exalt. Basic economy.

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Fredo81 wrote:

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FathomWheel wrote:

Why must it be bots? PoE has always had bots. To me, it seems that the exchange ratio has been climbing up over the seasons and this is just the latest series of jumps. If people are paying 100c:1ex, that kind of defines the price, no?

Prices are defined by bid and ask.
Lots of bots => more chaos on the market => chaos value is falling.... it results in more chaos needed to buy an exalt. Basic economy.

Except that there are also more exalts due to increased bot activity. Based on my experience, chaos drops have been turned up. I think we're simply being fed more chaos than usual, which would also have the effect of deflating their value. Dunno.

The only pseudo logical explanation I've seen to the "botters=chaos inflation" conclusion is botters change up low currency to exalts because they are easier to rmt. But I'm not personally convinced it isn't just a reflection of the actual chaos to exalt acquisition rate of the gross player base combined with exalts becoming defacto currency for most items of value.

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ladish wrote:

The only pseudo logical explanation I've seen to the "botters=chaos inflation" conclusion is botters change up low currency to exalts because they are easier to rmt. But I'm not personally convinced it isn't just a reflection of the actual chaos to exalt acquisition rate of the gross player base combined with exalts becoming defacto currency for most items of value.

Bingo.

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magicstop wrote:

Based on my experience, chaos drops have been turned up. I think we're simply being fed more chaos than usual, which would also have the effect of deflating their value. Dunno.

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ladish wrote:

The only pseudo logical explanation I've seen to the "botters=chaos inflation" conclusion is botters change up low currency to exalts because they are easier to rmt. But I'm not personally convinced it isn't just a reflection of the actual chaos to exalt acquisition rate of the gross player base combined with exalts becoming defacto currency for most items of value.

Let me explain how bot chaos inflation works. Botters are actually massive. When RMT do botting, they don't run a single bot, they run 5, 10 or even more. Someone written that in last banwave one single ip used 100 bot accs. Now what the clue to inflation? Answer: chaos recipe. Chaos recipe is very boring thing to do manually, but a bot can do it without a problem.
In last league, when there was an Alva loot pinata I tried to do chaos recipe by myself. I've set up my lootfilter to show different pieces of gear in different colours, I organized my quad stash tab to make it efficient. Well... chaos recipe made me about 200c in 80 maps, so It was like 40c/h. I stopped doing it after few days, because it was extremely boring and usual map chaining was much more satisfiing.
So. Lets say a botter don't do 40c on CR with all this tabs managment. Let's say he do 30c/h. It means if he run 10 bots, he will produce 300 pure chaos/h. As bots are not ppl and can run 24h/7 it means he will produce 7200c a day. Which is about 70ex in current rates only from doing chaos recipe. Now, Imagine that all this things are done by 100 and more bots(there are thousands of them in reality - just check player's number drop after Incursion banwave). And all these accounts buying Ex at the same time period, driving prices higher.
Is is clear now, where all this chaos inflation come from?

I think GGG must focus on some progs or system that can detect bots or something like that
Im not programmer so dunno whats can be done but some games removed all bots so why GGG cant?

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TreeOfDead wrote:

I think GGG must focus on some progs or system that can detect bots or something like that
Im not programmer so dunno whats can be done but some games removed all bots so why GGG cant?

No popular game has ever removed all bots lol

I'd suspect that even if we see another ban wave, chaos will remain cheap in Delve. For non-bot players, the chaos recipe is governed by jewelry and the mine gives an easy and predictable source of jewelry.

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Alfatin wrote:

Is is clear now, where all this chaos inflation come from?

I guess my doubts would be on the efficiency of chaos recipe vs pure drops of chaos/ex (bottle neck is ring/amulets). also like I said, I see huge number of bots in a3 who are presumably farming ex div cards. I don't think it's as simple as just bots dictating the ratio because they farm chaos at a much higher chaos/ex ratio than regular players.