EXALTED ORB Price Shenanigans [Delirium] 127:1 What is even going on?

Who fucking cares. It's only a game if for you it's a problem then it means you have bigger problems with your life :D

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Xavathos wrote:

I've never understood this entire thread.

If bots were the reason of a price change on ex, they would make them CHEAPER, not more expensive. Bots farming currency means there's more currency in the game and the value goes down. Simply supply and demand. Actually banning bots would up the prices, as it removes their supply of currency from the game.

I believe the issue is that the bots are flooding the economy with chaos orbs, not exalts. I think that would indeed devalue chaos orbs and cause the price of exalts to go up. But I never was good at ergonomics so don’t quote me. :p

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SunL4D2 wrote:

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Xavathos wrote:

I've never understood this entire thread.

If bots were the reason of a price change on ex, they would make them CHEAPER, not more expensive. Bots farming currency means there's more currency in the game and the value goes down. Simply supply and demand. Actually banning bots would up the prices, as it removes their supply of currency from the game.

You don't understand how it works. They are interested.

When GGG banned bots in Incursion as a result Exalt immediately dropped to 60-70c from 110c+ and stayed at 60-70c until the very end of the League as opposed to 110+ like it was before. We do know what happens when bots get dealt with.

My issue with that narrative is that it presupposes that the exchange rate is already in equilibrium at about 60-70c and that the bots were only active during those times.

I think there just wasn't a long enough period for the price to stabilize after the banwave and we're seeing that upward pressure now. Otherwise, you'd have to argue that bots (and the currency they inject) somewhat arbitrarily start and stop functioning outside that banwave

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Phaeded wrote:

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Xavathos wrote:

I've never understood this entire thread.

If bots were the reason of a price change on ex, they would make them CHEAPER, not more expensive. Bots farming currency means there's more currency in the game and the value goes down. Simply supply and demand. Actually banning bots would up the prices, as it removes their supply of currency from the game.

I believe the issue is that the bots are flooding the economy with chaos orbs, not exalts. I think that would indeed devalue chaos orbs and cause the price of exalts to go up. But I never was good at ergonomics so don’t quote me. :p

That would be a possible way to explain the price increase. I don't know how bots operate though or what they farm, so I treat all currency equally when I assess this. If they farm chaos recipes, then you'd be right.

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Xavathos wrote:

That would be a possible way to explain the price increase. I don't know how bots operate though or what they farm, so I treat all currency equally when I assess this. If they farm chaos recipes, then you'd be right.

Bots "modus operandi" is quite simple. There are whole "bot farms", like 20, 30, or more computers, all with bots farming in act 8. They farm every currency which can be farmed, along with chaos orb divination cards and possibly - sets for "chaos recipe". Then, when they have enough currency, they flip it all to gain chaos/exalted orbs and transmit all gained currency to “shopping” RMT account. That’s why “ban wave” in “Incursion” league was able to drop rates from 180/1 to 70/1. It was enough to close the appropriate number of accounts-shops to simply annihilate tens of thousands exalted and chaos orbs.

By the way, it is quite simple to track such bots, but apparently GGG do not want to do this, considering that up to a certain point the bots are useful for the company. There are a lot of players who do not have the time or skill to get the right amount of currency. If they get it somehow, they will continue to play. If not, they will stop. But GGG don’t want they to stop play, on the contrary, the company loves players who buy currency for real money. The reason is simple. Anyone who is “smart” enough to buy pixels for real money will also willing to buy other pixels – MTX for instance. So no hope there, bots will stay unless they start to ruin economy again :)

TL;DR: there are many factors in play, bots are only one of them.

PoE economy mechanics:

BOTS FARMS ACTIVE
Bots devalue chaos orbs and low-level currency -> market is flooded with chaos orbs -> value of exalt orb gets higher

CRAFTING
New crafting possibilities come in with new league -> crafting gets more rewarding / easier -> demand on crafting currency gets higher -> exalts (as they can be used to "polish" the item and master-craft) value rises

META
Meta usually circles around some items -> relative price of the item gets higher -> it can be in chaos or ex, but ex (from some reason) are preferred currency -> demand for ex orbs rises

OTHER FACTORS
There are other factors that can't be simply labeled. For example, we don't know if patch did not changed the drop rates. If drop rates change, demand and supply changes (it is not so aggressive comparing to meta-shift) - at the end of the chain there is currency.

Currently it is hard to say with complete confidence that current EX price is the outcome of bot-farms comeback. What I am certain of is the fact that Delve made crafting much more available and rewarding for casual players then any other league before (essence crafting vs fossils for example). If casual player with very limited time gets nice item with crafting, it is highly probable that he will at least try high level crafting (look how popularity of how-to-craft post and videos skyrocketed).

@postrach_myszy
I agree with you that limited botting in game can be good for business. The line is crossed when game's economy is destabilized by bots to the point where game is not playable without RTM or 3rd party programs. I would call it "hyper-inflation", where the most basic currency is player's time spend to gain currency/items good enough to have good experience.
If we consider that time played of average player generates X chaos orbs (due to averaged drop value, chaos receipt, etc...) then we can link time with chaos orbs. Of course the topic much more complicated to make such a simple model completely valid, but this can give us a little insight into how botting impact the economy and player's experience.

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Fukurokage wrote:

@postrach_myszy
I agree with you that limited botting in game can be good for business. The line is crossed when game's economy is destabilized by bots to the point where game is not playable without RTM or 3rd party programs. I would call it "hyper-inflation", where the most basic currency is player's time spend to gain currency/items good enough to have good experience.
If we consider that time played of average player generates X chaos orbs (due to averaged drop value, chaos receipt, etc...) then we can link time with chaos orbs. Of course the topic much more complicated to make such a simple model completely valid, but this can give us a little insight into how botting impact the economy and player's experience.

Let me explain :) There are 2 “gold mines” in Act 8 – Imperial Fields and Grain Gate. I use them quite often to get rid of some unwanted prophecies, and during such runs I always get at least 2 Rain of Chaos cards. Moreover, other currency cards can drop there, so if you are professional botter… Lets do some math. Approximately each Imperial fields run player/bot can earn at least 2,5 chaos orbs – 2 from “chaos recipe” and 0,5 from cards, other type of currency.

That’s minimum. After successful run bot just move to Grain Gate and continue farming. Let’s assume, instance “reset” time is 3 minutes. Then it is at least 20 Imperial fields and 20 Grain Gain runs in 1 hour. It is 100 chaos orb per hour/per 1 bot. Let’s assume “farmer” have 30 computers with bot on each of them, “working” 24h/day. It is 2400x30. Hello! 72000 chaos orbs each day from just one 30-computers “bot farm”. Let’s count on current prices. 72000 (chaos)/115. It is… 626 exalted orbs daily on current prices. With such amount of farmed chaos orbs “hyperinflation” is inevitable.

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Nephalim wrote:

This is what happens when delves drop a stack of chorbs per segment and players still whine delves are too inaccesible.

Thank god GGG made zana worthwhile this league.

Your hyperbole is stronk. Also, Zana map mods are fantastic, I love what GGG did with them.

Finally: "Not good at ergonomics." Phaeded, no one acknowledged this, but allow me to say - lol!

commenting in epic thread

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postrach_myszy wrote:

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Fukurokage wrote:

@postrach_myszy
I agree with you that limited botting in game can be good for business. The line is crossed when game's economy is destabilized by bots to the point where game is not playable without RTM or 3rd party programs. I would call it "hyper-inflation", where the most basic currency is player's time spend to gain currency/items good enough to have good experience.
If we consider that time played of average player generates X chaos orbs (due to averaged drop value, chaos receipt, etc...) then we can link time with chaos orbs. Of course the topic much more complicated to make such a simple model completely valid, but this can give us a little insight into how botting impact the economy and player's experience.

Let me explain :) There are 2 “gold mines” in Act 8 – Imperial Fields and Grain Gate. I use them quite often to get rid of some unwanted prophecies, and during such runs I always get at least 2 Rain of Chaos cards. Moreover, other currency cards can drop there, so if you are professional botter… Lets do some math. Approximately each Imperial fields run player/bot can earn at least 2,5 chaos orbs – 2 from “chaos recipe” and 0,5 from cards, other type of currency.

That’s minimum. After successful run bot just move to Grain Gate and continue farming. Let’s assume, instance “reset” time is 3 minutes. Then it is at least 20 Imperial fields and 20 Grain Gain runs in 1 hour. It is 100 chaos orb per hour/per 1 bot. Let’s assume “farmer” have 30 computers with bot on each of them, “working” 24h/day. It is 2400x30. Hello! 72000 chaos orbs each day from just one 30-computers “bot farm”. Let’s count on current prices. 72000 (chaos)/115. It is… 626 exalted orbs daily on current prices. With such amount of farmed chaos orbs “hyperinflation” is inevitable.

The only thing I would add to this is that it should be possible to run multiple different accounts (PoE clients) on one computer. So, if there are 30 computers, there might be 60 or 90 bots (or ?) running at a time, depending on the computers used.