Is this what it means "throwing the towel"?

i find it amusing that some forummers have very strong opinions on things, and when people pull out numbers, they just dismiss them.

for sure the numbers arent 100% accurate but it gives a good slice of the pie.

even GGG once mentioned that the number of players on steam is roughly similar to those playing on standalone client.

so the argument becomes "you're wrong coz you can never know the proper numbers" easily dismissing everything rather than "ok the numbers represent a portion of the playerbase" and using the data we have to extrapolate information.

for sure its not 100% accurate. i m pretty sure even the data GGG has isnt 100% accurate.

there are tons of players just afking, peacocking in town or just being tradebots. but they count as active players. there are tons of players who buy or utilize carry services for harder encounters but they too unlock the relevant achievements.

if we only rely on 100% accurate data, market studies/surveys can be a complete waste of time and effort yet people are making money from that.

"so I guess y'all work with what you got."

The question will always be: is that enough? And the answer will always be: it has to be.

Or, alternatively, don't. Viable if a little less engaging. Probably a happier approach though, given the inevitable inadequacy of the data available.

But we're not here to be happy, damn it. Except me. Obviously.

"

Foreverhappychan wrote:

"so I guess y'all work with what you got."

The question will always be: is that enough? And the answer will always be: it has to be.

Or, alternatively, don't. Viable if a little less engaging. Probably a happier approach though, given the inevitable inadequacy of the data available.

But we're not here to be happy, damn it. Except me. Obviously.

how dare you be happy!

Most people who pull up numbers just compare leagues based on player numbers without any context. It's not just that those charts lack context, they're incomplete datasets. The playerbase is split across Steam, Standalone Client and Console, and we don't know much about the latter two.

Yes, years ago we were given a rough estimate of 60/40 between steam and standalone, but we don't know if this is still true. Personally, I played the first 4,000 hours on Steam but switched to standalone like 5 years ago because it was a lot more stable. Can't speak for anyone else, but I could see how more active players would make the switch once they learn of the standalone client that comes with unique perks such as pre-downloading new patches via a torrent.

And as for context: so many factors have a direct impact on player numbers. Some leagues have had huge influxes in players initially due to marketing. Anyone remembering Shroud playing PoE back in Ultimatum? Paid promo that markets the game to a new audience. Many of those players wouldn't be retained, because they would only try the game once (because lets be real, PoE is not a game meant for just everyone).

The people who just blindly post Steam charts will then point at that and say "look how bad retention is!" Like yeah, of course it is. It's expected. The thought that there should be a high percentile conversion from first timers to permanent players is ridiculous.

So no, I am not dismissing this based on "we don't know the exact numbers", I am doing it based on that on top of all the other good reasons too. It would be cool to get the actual numbers from GGG which I doubt they'll readily make available

"

exsea wrote:

i find it amusing that some forummers have very strong opinions on things, and when people pull out numbers, they just dismiss them.

for sure the numbers arent 100% accurate but it gives a good slice of the pie.

even GGG once mentioned that the number of players on steam is roughly similar to those playing on standalone client.

so the argument becomes "you're wrong coz you can never know the proper numbers" easily dismissing everything rather than "ok the numbers represent a portion of the playerbase" and using the data we have to extrapolate information.

for sure its not 100% accurate. i m pretty sure even the data GGG has isnt 100% accurate.

there are tons of players just afking, peacocking in town or just being tradebots. but they count as active players. there are tons of players who buy or utilize carry services for harder encounters but they too unlock the relevant achievements.

if we only rely on 100% accurate data, market studies/surveys can be a complete waste of time and effort yet people are making money from that.

I wonder if its because D4 is doing okay. Feel like if it was the other way around everyone would be hootering and hollering. But since its the former, people are like "who cares stfu"

While Steam charts aren't a blueprint for anything, I think most people can agree that they are a decent sample size to get an idea of certain trends, including current players.

That said, there is always more to it than that.

While PoE is undoubtedly one of the best (if not the best) ARPG on the market, I think a lot of people can agree that PoE has "serfed a wave of lacking competition" over the years. An "under par" PoE league at the same time that D4 got (some of) their shit together do of course have an impact. And ALL players, PoE and D4, should embrace that competition.

Hell, I also think all the PoE 2 stuff, with a BETA around the corner, can have negative impact on the PoE numbers. Hell, even the time of year can, but I'm to lazy to compare Necropolis to other spring releases.

What all players should agree on: Necropolis was sub-par, both when it comes to quality (bugs, exploits, QoL of league mechanics) and when it comes to popularity. Does it matter in the long run? Who knows... Who cares...

If Diablo 3 had released in the same state as its closed beta, I wouldn't be here and GGG would be 25k short.

I LOVED that demo man. 40 hours in a weekend, easy.

Shoulda known from how much I loved the WoW beta that it wouldn't release in a state I even vaguely enjoy. Oh well, GGG's gain.

As a fellow Exile from the old days said, PoE was always a sort of detour until Blizzard got their shit together. They're not there yet but they're closer than they have been in ages.

And then there's TQ2 waiting to dark horse it up...

"

Foreverhappychan wrote:

If Diablo 3 had released in the same state as its closed beta, I wouldn't be here and GGG would be 25k short.

I LOVED that demo man. 40 hours in a weekend, easy.

Shoulda known from how much I loved the WoW beta that it wouldn't release in a state I even vaguely enjoy. Oh well, GGG's gain.

As a fellow Exile from the old days said, PoE was always a sort of detour until Blizzard got their shit together. They're not there yet but they're closer than they have been in ages.

And then there's TQ2 waiting to dark horse it up...

While I wasn't a fan of the first TQ (played it first in 2020, after sinking countless hours into GD already), what I have seen of the new TQ game has me excited. Could be very cool!

"

ArtCrusade wrote:

"

Foreverhappychan wrote:

If Diablo 3 had released in the same state as its closed beta, I wouldn't be here and GGG would be 25k short.

I LOVED that demo man. 40 hours in a weekend, easy.

Shoulda known from how much I loved the WoW beta that it wouldn't release in a state I even vaguely enjoy. Oh well, GGG's gain.

As a fellow Exile from the old days said, PoE was always a sort of detour until Blizzard got their shit together. They're not there yet but they're closer than they have been in ages.

And then there's TQ2 waiting to dark horse it up...

While I wasn't a fan of the first TQ (played it first in 2020, after sinking countless hours into GD already), what I have seen of the new TQ game has me excited. Could be very cool!

TQ after GD would be INCREDIBLY difficult to enjoy. GD overcooks TQ from a TQ perspective, but from a GD perspective, TQ is a mere melody to GD's symphony.

Especially with mods. My god GD mods hard. Adding D3 classes, TQ classes...shit like that. Great.

But TQ2 will be different since it's not from Ironlore/Crate. It's THQ Nordic, and so far their additions to TQ have been...uneven. So that's why I said it's a dark horse atm. No one quite knows what THQN can produce from scratch...

"

Phrazz wrote:

While Steam charts aren't a blueprint for anything, I think most people can agree that they are a decent sample size to get an idea of certain trends, including current players.

That said, there is always more to it than that.

While PoE is undoubtedly one of the best (if not the best) ARPG on the market, I think a lot of people can agree that PoE has "serfed a wave of lacking competition" over the years. An "under par" PoE league at the same time that D4 got (some of) their shit together do of course have an impact. And ALL players, PoE and D4, should embrace that competition.

Hell, I also think all the PoE 2 stuff, with a BETA around the corner, can have negative impact on the PoE numbers. Hell, even the time of year can, but I'm to lazy to compare Necropolis to other spring releases.

What all players should agree on: Necropolis was sub-par, both when it comes to quality (bugs, exploits, QoL of league mechanics) and when it comes to popularity. Does it matter in the long run? Who knows... Who cares...

Well, Necropolis, percentage wise, was their worst performing league ever. So you don't need to do much comparing or analyzing when it literally is at the bottom.

The timing is in fact poor market wise, since D4 had a season that actually saw engagement go UP after the Season came out. In fact GGG has never had a league launch that saw player number increases in the weeks following a league launch date.

As far as "who cares" I certainly hope GGG cares enough to make at least more solid legaues before PoE2, and that the competition with D4 matters to them.

Players can of course play both games, and this is healthy, but I'm not a huge fan of "who cares and nothing matters" mentality in terms popularity or player reception. I think its somewhat relevant from the player perspective, and should be very important to GGG/Blizzard at the business level.